ON GOLD AND SILVER. OoO 



coming to develop the poorest mines and to keep tliem going upon the 

 most shadowy of hopes. 



Enormous fortunes have been made in gold-mining by a few lucky 

 speculators. Bat for one who has been thus fortunate there are scores 

 who have lost heavily. 



The facts which we have been considering as to the probable future of 

 gold-mining warrant us in believing that the industry will gradually make 

 for itself a sounder and more honest position. But there must ever be 

 great uncertainty, and therefore a wide field for speculation and for 

 dishonest dealing. 



If a steady and undiminished production of gold is essential for the 

 well-being of the world, perhaps what we have most to dread is a sudden 

 influx of common-sense and prudence in the investing public ; for this 

 would at once close a great number of mines, and might considerably 

 diminish the world's production. But probably this contingency is 

 sufficiently remote to be safely left out of consideration. 



Tables I., II., and III. are, for the j'ears 1852 to 1885, based on the estimates of Sir 

 Hector Hay. These are taken because they give the probable production for each 

 year ; Dr. Soetbeer's figures before 1876 give only averages of five years. From 1870 

 to 1880 Sir Hector Hay's estimates for silver are from 8 to 25 per cent, lower than 

 those of Dr. Soetbeer, chiefly due to differences in Mexico and South America ; for 

 gold in the same period they are from 3 to 10 per cent, lower. The differences are 

 greater in the first half of these ten years than in the second half. Before 1870 the 

 differences in the two estimates were comparatively small for silver, but were rather 

 larger for gold. From 1880 the estimates more nearly agree, but Sir Hector Hay's 

 are still rather the lower, 



Table IV. (Australasia) is taken from official figures supplied for the 16th Ann. 

 Keport of the Deputy Master of the Mint (1886). It differs somewhat from the cor- 

 responding diagram in Table I. 



The proportions of vein gold to alluvial gold at different periods are taken from 

 a variety of sources. In recent years the estimates are fairly trustworthy, but for 

 former years they are necessarily vague. The proportion of gold in the silver of the 

 United States is taken from the Appendix, by L. A. Garnett, to Bowie's ' Hydraulic 

 Mining.' 



The authorities cited throughout this paper have been consulted upon the question 

 generally and not solely for the statements especiall}' referred to. Information has also 

 been obtained from numerous other sources, amongst others from Lock's 'Gold' 

 (1882), the fullest treatise upon that subject, which also contains a lengthy Biblio- 

 gTaphy; Hague's 'Mining Industries at the Paris Exhibition, 1878'; J. A. Phillips' 

 ♦^ Mining and Metallurgj' of Gold and Silver ' (18G7) ; Percy's ' Metallurgy of Silver ' ; 

 the various Catalogues and Guides for the Colonial and Indian Exhibition of last 

 year ; Dr. C. Le Neve Foster's ' Keport on the Mining Industries of the British 

 Colonies ' ; Report (in the ' Mining Journal ') by E. Etheridge, jun., and T. Davis upon 

 the exhibits ; Reports (also in the ' Mining Journal ') of Conferences of the Geolo- 

 gists' Association at the Exhibition. Gold was especially referred to in the lectures 

 by Professor V. Ball (India), Dr. Selwyn (Canada), Sir J. von Haast (New Zealand), 

 Mr. F. W. Rudler (Australia). Jervis, 'Dell'Oro in Natura ' (1881), gives a table 

 showing, in kilog. and in oz. troy, the produce of various districts from 18-18 to 1879. 

 Suess' ' Die Zukunft des Goldes ' (1877) contains a Bibliography. 



I have also to thank Dr. T. Sterry Hunt and Mr. F. W. Rudler for much assistance 

 and information. 



