552 EEPORT— 1887. 



enormously. In 1887 no reasons peculiar to agriculture are discernible 

 why prices should fall. The fields of the Far "West and the Eastern 

 Cathay, that the iron road has opened up, are no more a threat to agri- 

 culture than are the mines of Pennsylvania, or the cotton and jute looms 

 of Massachusetts or the Ganges to other industries. Why should 

 agriculture fail now ? It defied prognostication in 1850 ; why should it 

 not rebound in the future after 1887, when it has no cause specially 

 adverse to defy ? 



I for one seek the solution of that problem among those elements 

 which afiect at present all industries, but mainly in the result of the 

 labours of the Royal Commission appointed to inquire into the recent 

 changes in the relative values of the precious metals. 



It is matter of regret that no attempt has been made to discriminate 

 between those causes of agricultural depression which may be regarded 

 as normal and permanent, and those which are accidental, and possibly 

 therefore evanescent. 



It was from Russia and the East of Europe that those who dreaded 

 the result of the repeal of the Corn Laws anticipated that the flood of 

 wheat would come to overwhelm British agriculture. At this moment I 

 fancy the British and the Russian agriculturists would both alike gladly 

 compound for such a price as would make the shipping of wheat from 

 Russian ports profitable to either the growers or the importers. It is 

 from America and from India that the flood now comes which sweeps 

 before it the profit of all European agriculture ; and it is in the conditions 

 of these countries that we must search for the causes, permanent or 

 evanescent, which now affect our native industry. 



As regards America, it is by no means easy to ascertain how far the 

 present enormous supplies and low prices are to be regarded as due to 

 causes normal and permanent, or how far they are due to causes and in- 

 fluences which are likely to be modified or removed. Tbere is a direct 

 conflict of testimony as to whether wheat is or is not the crop most con- 

 ducive to profit, and most suitable to the climate and other circumstances 

 in many districts from which, at present, very large supplies are drawn. 

 It is said that, in terms of agreements, express or implied, on the large 

 tracts of land sold by the great railway companies wheat is grown where 

 maize and hogs would be more profitable. If maize be the more 

 profitable crop, it will, no doubt, ultimately assert itself and supersede 

 wheat. 



The unproductive capital sunk in Western American railroads is also 

 an element which has to be reckoned with. In Canada, whence great sup- 

 plies are drawn, and greater still are promised, the amount of capital 

 which is dormant is comparatively enormous ; besides the large subsidies 

 from the Canadian Government to the Canadian Pacific Railroad, the 

 capital of that concern, 13,000,000Z., is not worth above 7,000,000?. 

 The capital of three of the largest steam shipping companies trading 

 with America is upwards of 2,875,000^ ; it is at present absolutely un- 

 productive, and its value in the market is less than l,O0O,O00Z. The 

 recent cheapness of American wheat is not, therefore, wholly due to the 

 normal fertility of American land, but largely to the abnormal sacrifices 

 made by the capital which has brought the produce of that land to 

 market. Is that sacrifice permanent ? If it be not — if, when the spirit 

 of trade generally revives, the capital sunk in American and Canadian 

 railroads and Atlantic shipping reasserts its claims to fair remuneration, 



