TEANSA.CTIOKS OF SECTION F. 811 



In tobacco again in the last ten years tliere has been no increase of the consnmption 

 per head; which contrasts with a rapid increase in the period just before — viz., from 

 about 1-31 lb. per head in 1865 to 1-46 lb. per head in 1875. 



No doubt the observation here applies that the utmost prosperity would ob- 

 viously be consistent with a slower rate of increase per head from period to period 

 in the consumption of these articles, and with, in the end, a cessation of the rate 

 of increase altogether. The consumption of some articles may attain a compara- 

 tively stationary state, the increased resources of the community being devoted to 

 new articles. But here, again, we have to observe the necessity for explanation. 

 The indications are no longer so sure and obvious in all directions as they were. 



It is difficult, indeed, to resist the impression made when we put all the facts 

 together, leaving out of sight for a moment those of values only. "\\'e are able to 

 attirm positively — (a) That the production of coal, iron, and other staple articles 

 has been at a less rate in the last ten years than formerly ; (//) that this has taken 

 place when agricultural production has been notoriously stationary, and when the 

 production of other articles such as copper, lead, &c., has positively diminished; 

 (c) that there has been a similar falling-off in the rate of advance in the great 

 textile industries ; (d) that the receipts from railway trailic and the figures of 

 shipping in the foreign trade show a corresponding slackening in the rate of 

 increase in the business movement ; and (e) that the figures as to consumption of 

 leading articles, such as tea, sugar, spirits, and tobacco, in showing a similar 

 decline in the rate of increase, and, in some cases, a diminution, are at least not in 

 contradiction with the other facts stated, although it may be allowed that there 

 was no antecedent reason to expect an indefinite continuance of a former rate of 

 increase. 



From these facts, however, we may qualify them : and many qualifications have 

 already been suggested while others could be added : it seems tolerably safe to 

 draw the conclusion that there has probably been a falling-off in the rate of 

 material increase generally. Tlie income tax assessment figures, though they could 

 not be taken by themselves in such a question, are, at least, not in contradiction, 

 and there is nothing the other way when we deal with these main figures only. 

 I should not put the conclusion, however, as more than highly probable. Some 

 general explanation of the facts may be possible on the hypothesis that there is no 

 real decline in the rate of growth generally at all ; that the usual signs for 

 various reasons have become more difficult to read ; that owing to the advance 

 already made the real growth of the country and, to some extent, of other countries, 

 has taken a new direction ; and that the utmost caution must be used in forming- 

 final conclusions on the subject. But the conclusion of a check having occurred 

 to the former rate of growth may be assumed meanwhile for the purposes of 

 discussion. The attempted explanation of the causes of change, on the hypothesis 

 that there is a real change, may help to throw light on the question of the reality 

 of the change itself. 



Various explanations are suggested, then, not only for a decline in the rate of 

 our progress, but for actual retrogression. Let us look at the principal of these 

 explanations in their order and see whether they can account for the facts : either 

 for actual retrogression, or for a decline in the general rate of material growth 

 equal to what some of the particular facts above cited, if they were significant of a 

 general change in the rate of growth, imply — a decline, say, from a rate of growth 

 amounting to 40 per cent, in ten years to one of 20 per cent, only in the same 

 period. 



One of the most common explanations, then, as we all know, is foreign competi- 

 tion. The explanation has been discredited because of the exaggeration of the 

 alleged evil to be explained ; but it may possibly be a good enough explanation of 

 the actual facts when they are looked at in a proper way. In this light, then, the 

 assertion as to foreign competition would be found to mean that foreigners are 

 taking away from us some business we should otherwise have had, and that, con- 

 sequently, although our business on the whole increases from year to year, it does 

 not increase so fast as when foreign competition was less. Those who talk most 

 about foreign competition have actually in their mind the unfair element in that 



