820 EEPOKT — 1887. 



absurd to dogmatise in such a matter. I hope, however, I liave said enough to 

 those who care to reflect to satisfy them that the indispensahility even of coal and 

 iron to the continuance of our material growth is no longer to be assumed, that 

 there are wholly new conditions to be considered. 



To come back to the practical point in all this discussion. Not only is there no 

 sign in anything that has yet happened that the apparent check to our former rate 

 of material growth is due to the loss of natural advantages which we once 

 possessed, but the theory of natural advantages itself requires to be revised. Equally 

 in this way as in the other ways that have been discussed, it is impossible to 

 account for the apparent check to the former rate of our material growth which 

 has been observed. 



Having carried matters so far, however, and having found the insufficiency 

 of the various causes which have been assigned for the check to our former rate of 

 material growth, because they have not produced the sort of effect in detail which 

 they ought to have produced so as to lead to the general effect alleged, or because 

 they existed quite as much when the rate of growth was great as in recent years 

 when a diminution has apparently been observed, it would seem expedient to in- 

 quire whether, in spite of the accumulation of signs to that effect, the apparent 

 check to our rate of growth may, after all, not be a real one. To some extent I 

 think we must conclude that this is the case. There are other facts which are 

 inconsistent with a real and permanent check such as has been in question, and a 

 general explanation of the special phenomena of arrest seems possible without 

 supposing any such real check. 



The tirst broad fact that does not seem quite reconcilable with the fact of a real 

 diminution of the kind alleged in the rate of material growth generally is the 

 real as distinguished from the apparent growth of the income tax assessments 

 when allowance is made for the fall of prices which affect, as we have seen, all 

 aggregate values. Assuming the fall of prices to be about 20 per cent., then 

 we must add one-fourth to the assessments in 1885 to get the proper figure for 

 comparison with 1875. The total of C31 millions for 1885 would thus become 

 787 millions, which is a falling-off of 35 millions, or 4 per cent, only, from the 

 figure of 822 milhons, which should have been reached if the rate of growth had 

 been the sanie between 1875 and 1885 as between 1865 and 1875. Allowing for 

 the raising of the lower limit of the income tax in the interval, this is really no 

 decrease at all. 



Of course this comparison may be thrown out if we are to assume the difference 

 made by the fall of prices on the income tax assessments to be 15 or 10 per cent, 

 only, instead of 20 per cent. But a point like this would involve a most elaborate 

 discussion, for which this address would hardly be the occasion. I hope to find a 

 better opportunity shortly in a continuation of my essay of ten years ago on the 

 Accumulations of Capital in the United Kingdom. There is no doubt, however, 

 that an allowance must be made for the difference of prices, and when any such 

 allowance is made the rate of material growth would not appear to be so very 

 much less between 1875 and 1885 than in the period just before, as it does in the 

 above figures. 



Another broad fact not easily reconcilable with the fact of a great diminution 

 in the real rate of material growth in the last ten years is the steadiness of the 

 increase of population and the absence of any sign, such as an increase in the pro- 

 portion of pauperism, indicating that the people are less fully employed than they 

 were. The increasing numbers must either be employed or unemployed, and if 

 there is an increase in the proportion of the unemployed the fact should be revealed 

 in the returns of pauperism somehow. The existence of trade unions, no doubt, 

 prevents many workmen coming on the rates who might formerly have done so, but 

 there are large masses of workmen, the most likely to feel the brunt of want 

 of employment, to whom this explanation would not apply. 



What we find, however, is that population has increased as follows : between 

 1855 and 1865 from 27,800,000 to 29,900,000, or 7^ per cent.; between 1865 and 

 1875 from 29,900,000 to 32,800,000, or nearly 10 "per cent. ; and between 1875 

 and 1885 from 32,800,000 to 36,300,000, or over 10 per cent. If it is considered 



