THE DECLINING BIRTHRATE 



By John B. Phillips 



"The most decisive mark of the prosperity of any country is the 

 increase of the number of its inhabitants." This statement written more 

 than one hundred years ago by Adam Smith has been generally accepted 

 by publicists to the present day. Statesmen are thinking of possible 

 military necessities, captains of industry want laborers, and new coun- 

 tries need men to develop their resources. With these demands for an 

 additional labor supply, it is not strange that any indication of a decline 

 in the future supply of men is viewed with alarm. 



The natural increase of a population is by excess of births over deaths, 

 and growth in this way is possible only when the excess of the birthrate 

 is not lost by a high infant deathrate. A high birthrate does not neces- 

 sarily indicate a great increase in population. Unless we know that this 

 high birthrate is not accompanied by a heavy deathrate, we cannot be 

 sure that the natural increase of the population is large. Thus, in Russia 

 where the birthrate is 49. 5 per 1,000, 31 per cent, of all infants die be- 

 fore the end of the first year; in Bavaria the rate is 36.8 but 24 per 

 cent, die during the first year; in Norway, the rate is 30 and 9 per cent, 

 are likewise lost. 1 



It thus appears that the birthrate alone is not a clear indication of the 

 increase of the population of any country. It is nevertheless of sufficient 

 importance in this respect to excite alarm by its decline. In the future 

 medical science may considerably reduce the deathrate, but however 

 great this reduction may be, it cannot be expected to counterbalance the 

 effect of a constantly declining birthrate which if continued will result 

 in a less numerous population. A comparison of the birthrates of the 

 various countries is therefore important indicating as it does various 

 social and economic conditions prevailing among the different peoples. 



1 Ross, "Western Civilization and the Birthrate," Publications of the American Economic Association, 

 Vol. VIII, No. 1, p. 84, February, 1907. 



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