THE DECLINING BIRTHRATE 



161 



Number of White Children under Five Years to 1,000 White Women 

 15 to 44 Years of Age (Continental United States)* 



* Willcox, ibid. [The increase among the foreign-born is probably due to the immigration between 

 1890 and 1900. The decrease in the number of children to native women was general in the country except in 

 the North and South Atlantic divisions where there was a slight increase. The greatest decrease was in the 

 North Central, and Western divisions. The decrease was chiefly confined to the cities.] 



These tables show a general declining tendency in the birthrate of 

 civilized countries. Whatever the causes of this phenomenon may be, 

 their effect is worldwide. It is highly probable that these causes are 

 social and industrial rather than biological. Changes in social organiza- 

 tion and in industry that have intensified the growth of individuality 

 or placed additional obstacles in the young man's path to pecuniary 

 success have tended to lower the birthrate by bringing it in an increasing 

 degree under the control of the will. 1 That the action of the will is the 

 greatest factor in lowering the rate appears from the fact that the marriage 

 rate has declined but slightly; the change appears in the smaller size of 

 modern families. That the lower birthrate is not due to a great increase 

 in the sterility of marriage is shown by the fact that New South Wales 

 with a birthrate lower than that of England has a proportion of sterile 

 marriages less than half as great. 2 The question then is, What are the 

 changes that have so powerfully affected the will in its relation to the 

 birthrate ? Among these changes are the following : the passing of the 

 frontier; increase of wealth and luxury; democracy; prohibition of 

 child labor; increased care of children and consequent nervous strain; 



1 This is especially noticeable in Germany — a nation with a highly developed industrial civilization and 

 at the same time with perhaps the highest birthrate of any modern industrial state. It appears that in that 

 country considerable attention is being devoted to the problem of the high birthrate. There is certainly develop- 

 ing there the desire to reduce the size of the family. The large number of pamphlets treating of methods of 

 preventing conception which have recently appeared and are offered for sale at the bookstores is an indication 

 of the desire for smaller families. There is no law against the public sale of such literature in Germany. In 

 the window of one large bookstore I counted five such pamphlets conspicuously displayed. The price of most 

 of them was below fifty cents. 



' Ross, "Western Civilization and the Birthrate," Publications of the American Economic Association , 

 Vol. VIII, No. 1, p. 79, February, 1907. 



