THE DECLINING BIRTHRATE 1 77 



countries will probable decline for some years, but there is no evidence 

 to show that it will decline continuously till the point of race-extinction 

 is reached. The following table shows that the birthrate among the 

 native-born in Massachusetts has remained practically stationary since 

 1870: 



Births per 1,000 among Native-born in 

 Massachusetts * 



1870 15.93 



1875 16.50 



1880 16.22 



1885 16.43 



1890 16.49 



1895 16.58 



* Bailey, Modern Social Conditions, p. 104. 



Likewise the statistics of the fecundity of the families of the native- 

 born in Massachusetts seem to show that the decline in the birthrate for 

 this class of the population has about reached its minimum. In 1890 

 the number of children to a family was as great as at any time since 1850. 



Number of Births per Marriage in Massa- 

 chusetts among the Native-born * 

 1850 2.5 



1855 2 -4 



i860 1.9 



1865 2.1 



1870 2.2 



1875 2 -4 



l88o 2.2 



1885 2.4 



1890 2.4 



* Ibid., p. 171. 



The facts set forth by the tables seem to indicate that when a certain 

 level is reached the birthrate ceases to decline. This is what common- 

 sense would expect. To the very great majority of the human race, 

 children will always be the greatest interest in life, and while the days 

 when the family numbered from thirteen to twenty-one are gone they 

 have not as yet been followed by the day of the childless family nor are 

 they soon likely to be. It is doubtful if any injury has yet resulted from 

 the decline in the birthrate. Thus far the decline in births has made 

 possible an increase of wealth and consequently better conditions of 



