748 REPORT— 1903. 



excluded Iloug Konj^ and Singapore from our Colonies as being purely distributing 

 centres. On the otlier hand I have included with our Colonies all British posses- 

 sions except British India and Ceylon, figures for which are separately stated. 



Our exports of manufactured goods to European protected States and tlie 

 United States over 1898-1902 averaged annually 30,000,000/. more than our exports 

 to our Colonies, being 84,000,000/. against 54,000,000/. It is necessary to add 

 our exports to India and Ceylon, 32,000,000/. , to bring the total up to that of our 

 exports to the United States and European protected States. 



Our exports of manufactured goods to the United States have largely decreased 

 in the last twenty years, from an average of 24,800,000/. in the years 1883-87 to 

 an average of 17,700,000/. in the years 1898-1902, the whole decrease being nearly 

 accounted for by decrease in woollen goods and metals. 



Our exports of manufactured goods to European protected States show a sub- 

 stantial increase over the same period of 21^ per cent., while France shows a loss 

 of 1,500,000/., Germany shows an increase of 5,000,000/., and our trade to Russia 

 lias doubled itself from 3,800,000/. to 7,500,000/., which is a larger figure than we 

 can show for our average annual export to Canada over the same period, as is also 

 the case with our shipments of 8,000,000/. manufactured goods to Belgium. 



Our export trade to British India has only increased 3 per cent, in the period 

 under review. 



Our exports of manufactured goods to all Crown Colonies (except Hong Kong 

 and Singapore), and all British possessions (except India and Ceylon) have in- 

 creased by 2,000,000/., and still just fall short of our exports to Russia. 



Our trade to Cape Colony and Natal has increased enormously, from 2,900,000/, 

 to 10,500,000/. 



New Zealand shows an increase of 1,500,000/. 



Australia has remained stationary, and Canada, in spite of the preferential 

 tariff which was in operation during the whole period 1898-1902, shows a loss of 

 100,000/. compared with the figures of fifteen to twenty years ago. 



5, 21ie Commercial Relations between Canada and the United Kingdom. 



By F. Bradsiiaw. 



After an historical sketch of the relations between Canada and U.S.A., and 

 Canada and the United Kingdom, which led to the preferential tariff of 1897, 

 the paper attempts to indicate why the preference was given — as an alternative 

 to the annexation of Canada to U.S.A. — and the value of the preference. From 

 1890 onwards the rush to Manitoba and the North-West Territories can be traced. 

 Canada's prosperity depends on their prosperity, and her manufacturing population 

 cannot consume their products. Possible markets are Great Britain and U.S.A. 

 The latter country is fast reaching a stage when growth of population must 

 prevent it from remaining a source of our wheat supply, and the price of American 

 wheat will rise until even a tariff of 25 cents a bushel cannot keep out Canadian 

 wheat. The St. Lawrence navigation is the crux of the question. The canals 

 could be easily improved till the cost of transporting a bushel of wheat from 

 Port Arthur to Liverpool is only 12 cents the bushel of CO lb. If a preference to 

 Canadian wheat is given, the improvement will take place before the American 

 demand arises. If the American demand arises first, the improvement will never 

 take place, as the American market will be the more profitable. Hence the price 

 of wheat here will rise and remain high. Probably a 2s., or even a 4s., duty on 

 foreign wheat would not raise the price in England, as the margin of profit 

 retained by the American grower is too large, and he would fear to face the 

 competition of Canadian wheat. 



The preference is valuable to us because it has checked the decline in British 

 exports to Canada, and has actually increased their value. The United States 

 have apparently secured a larger increase than we have since 1897; but the increase 

 is in goods, which, being natural products or raw materials for manufactures, do • 

 pot pay duty: 50 per cent, of U.S.A. imporjiS into Canada are dftty free, as 



