640 TBANSACTIONS OF SECTION: P. 



we cannot say whether the very serious conditions which are ohvioiis at present 

 are better or woi'so than those of previous decades ; whether, for example, the 

 number of able-bodied men who are earning less thau 40/. per annum has increased 

 or decreased, absolutely or in proportion to the population. Remedies depend 

 not only in extent, but in kind, on the numbers to be dealt with. Private 

 resources may be sufficient to re-establish on a sound economic basis a small 

 number of men who have been unable to weather an economic storm, but quite 

 other means are necessary if a large class has lost the means or habit of earning;: a 

 livelihood. Similar remarks apply to all the classes to whom I am referring. 

 Till we know the facts we cannot prescribe the remedies, and it is during this 

 period of trade activity that we have the leisure to gather the facts. 



To learn the actual economic condition of all the 40,000,000 persons of the 

 United Kingdom, or even of those who are not obviously above any possible 

 poverty line, seems at first sight an impossible task ; and so indeed it is, but 

 only because of general apathy as to the subject. We must, therefore, proceed 

 by some method of samples. Before we can get sound information from samples 

 we must have a method of numbering or classification by persons or by districts. 

 If we had a definite system of registration and identification, as in Germany, it 

 would be easy to choose, say, 1 in 100 or 1 in 1 ,000 at random from among all 

 the persons whose record satisfied certain conditions, and then to investigate 

 more carefully the history and circumstances of those chosen. A similar method 

 could be applied to any particular district. There is no need to make a house-to- 

 house visitation to learn the conditions of a district ; it is sufficient to enumerate 

 the houses, to choose a certain proportion at random, and investigate carefully the 

 status of their inhabitants. But the area of choice must be coincident with the 

 area to be investigated. 



When we have the sample, and have tested its precision by internal evidence, 

 there are still difficulties of classification; but these can be overcome without 

 mathematical analysis. 



The economic analysis of these problems is constantly in need of help from 

 statistics. What is the cause of, and what the remedy for, the existence of a 

 large body of able-bodied persons frequently out of work or working for a wage 

 below any reasonable standard P The least acquaintance with economic theory 

 will lead us to deny any permanent absence of demand for a large body of existing 

 labour in normal conditions; the difficulty must lie in the unfitness of the supply. 

 The root cause economically is the fact that these peisons are not fit for any of the 

 work which society as an organisation needs. The unfitness may arise from the 

 permanent loss of the trade to which the persons belonged ; or to mental or 

 physical deterioration following a bad spell of periodic unemployment (a pheno- 

 menon to which I return) ; or may be, and is, 1 think, more likely to be due to an 

 absence of preparation for any of the employments which need more labour. In 

 fact, it appears that at present in England the demand for labour is not suffi- 

 ciently definite, and the supply too badly organised, to obtain equilibrium. 



In a progressive or changing society new trades are continually growing, old 

 trades altering their character or dying out. The latter process does not necessarily, 

 nor, I think, generally, mean the throwing out of work of existing employees ; "it 

 rather means the checking the demand for recruits who should enter the newer 

 trades, which in normal circumstances attract them with higher real wages. 

 There is, however, no information available by which an intelligent artisan can 

 decide into what occupation to put his son. A good deal could be done by mathe- 

 matical and actuarial work, based on the successive occupational Censuses (if these 

 could be improved), to forecast what trades were relatively overcrowded. More 

 could be done by a very careful organisation of technical schools, directed to 

 educating the young for the trades of the immediate future. At present the 

 choice of a trade is too much a matter of chance, decided by the immediate 

 vacancy in the neighbourhood, or by an ignorant observation of the temporary 

 prosperity of a particular industry. For example, superficial observation suggests 

 that too many lads have entered the building trades in the last twenty years ; 

 but, as usual, our sources of information break down when this is examined. 



