42 BULLETIN OF THE 



way interested in the article, we should then have an exact datum 

 which we do not now possess for reaching a conclusion. If some 

 superhuman authority, speaking with the voice of infallibility, 

 could give us this information, it is evident that a great national 

 want would be supplied. No question in practical life is more im- 

 portant than this : How can this desirable knowledge of the econo- 

 mic effects of a tariff be obtained ? 



The answer to this question is clear and simple. The subject 

 must be studied in the same spirit, and, to a certain extent, by 

 the same methods which have been so successful in advancing our 

 knowledge of nature. Every one knows that, within the last two 

 centuries, a method of studying the course of nature has been in- 

 troduced which has been so successful in enabling us to trace the 

 sequence of cause and effect as almost to revolutionize society. The 

 very fact that scientific method has been so successful here leads to 

 the belief that it might be equally successful in other departments 

 of inquiry. 



The same remarks will apply to the questions connected with 

 banking and currency ; the standard of value ; and, indeed, all 

 subjects which have a financial bearing. On every such question 

 we see wide differences of opinion without any common basis to rest 

 upon. 



It may be said, in reply, that in these cases there are really no 

 grounds for forming an opinion, and that the contests which arise 

 over them are merely those between conflicting interests. But this 

 claim is not at all consonant with the form which we see the discus- 

 sion assume. Nearly every one has a decided opinion on these 

 several subjects ; whereas, if there were no data for forming an 

 opinion, it would be unreasonable to maintain any whatever. In- 

 deed, it is evident that there must be truth somewhere, and the 

 only question that can be open is that of the mode of discovering 

 it. No man imbued with a scientific spirit can claim that such 

 truth is beyond the power of the human intellect. He may doubt 

 his own ability to grasp it, but cannot doubt that by pursuing the 

 proper method and adopting the best means the problem can be 

 solved. It is, in fact, difficult to show why some exact results could 

 not be as certainly reached in economic questions as in those of 

 physical science. It is true that if we pursue the inquiry far 

 enough we shall find more complex conditions to encounter, because 

 the future course of demand and supply enters as an uncertain 



