480 report — 1879. 



agreeing that this is a time when we should ahandon sociological inquiry as beyond 

 the limits of true science, I venture to think there never was a time when it was 

 more desirable that these subjects should be treated in a scientific manner. 



I do not purpose, however, on the present occasion to follow Dr. Tngram further 

 in his philosophical disquisition on the proper limits of economic inquiry, but I 

 shall endeavour to deal with one of the many questions which are unquestionably 

 open to us. 



There can scarcely be a more interesting economic question at the present time 

 than the state of agriculture and the causes of its present depression. How deeply 

 important is it that we should be able to trace the causes of that depression, to 

 analyse how far they are of a climatic and temporary character, and how far they 

 are due to the competition of foreign produce ; to what extent also the low prices 

 are due to the alteration in value of gold ; and, having ascertained this, to discuss 

 how far we may expect these causes or any of them to continue or to diminish in 

 their effect, and to estimate their ultimate effect upon rents, on wages, and on the 

 profits of farmers, and indirectly upon other interests of the community. 



Pending the investigations of the Royal Commission recently appointed to con- 

 sider the subject, it may seem almost an act of temerity to venture upon it ; but 

 the Report of the Commission will probably not be forthcoming for two years ; in 

 the meantime events will not wait for it, and it is desirable that every light should 

 be thrown upon the subject by independent criticism and observation. I feel also 

 that I owe no apology for so doing, for although the community in which we 

 meet is essentially a manufacturing one, yet it will be admitted that the depression 

 of a great interest like that of agriculture has a serious import and effect upon every 

 other interest in the country, and is probably at this moment one of the causes of 

 the stagnation which is so much complained of in the manufacturing world. 



It must be admitted most freely that the agricultural interest, or at least a 

 large part of it, has suffered severely during the last few years from a combination 

 of bad harvests and low prices. These phenomena are especially to be noted since 

 the year 1873 ; of the six years including and following that year, four have 

 been years of exceptionally bad harvests, giving results of from 20 to 25 per cent, 

 below the average ; and for the whole period the average production of cereals has 

 been 13 per cent, below the average. In the memory of living men there has been 

 no such concurrence of bad seasons. 



Bad harvests, however, in previous years were generally followed by higher 

 prices, which recouped the producers to a great extent for the deficient quantity ; 

 but bad harvests during the last six years have not only not been followed by 

 higher prices, but in the case of wheat at least, prices have fallen still lower, and 

 the consequence has been most serious to those who rely mainly on this cereal. 

 But when, in addition to the low price of wheat, we take into account the reduced 

 acreage of corn cultivation, the reduced number of cattle owned in the country, 

 notwithstanding the greatly increased price of meat, and the rise of wages of agri- 

 cultural labourers which occurred in 1872, we can easily realise the great losses of 

 those farmers who rely mainly upon corn for their returns, and who cultivate the 

 heavy and inferior lands of this country. 



The produce of wheat is so important a part of the agricultural industry of so 

 large a proportion of the country, that it may be taken as to a great extent an index 

 of the position of agriculture ; its abundance and price are also of not less interest to 

 the bulk of the population of this country, who rely upon it mainly for their food. 

 It is worth while, therefore, to pay special attention to this product. The position 

 of the producer with respect to it may best be estimated by multiplying the known 

 average produce per acre in each year by the average price obtained for it in the 

 twelve months succeeding the harvest. 



I have before me a table constructed on this basis, showing the average product 

 in money per acre of wheat for each year since 1849. It shows that for the first 

 four of these years following shortly after the repeal of the Corn Laws the pro- 

 duction of wheat must have been anything but profitable to farmers ; the harvests 

 were somewhat above the average, but the prices were very low, averaging only 41s. 

 per quarter, and the result in money to the farmer for an average acre of produce 



