TRANSACTIONS OF SECTION F. 481 



was only 71. 9s. ; after that year prices again rose, and for the next twenty years 

 the average product per acre in money was 91. 13s., or 21. 4s. per acre above that of 

 the four years succeeding 1848. During these twenty years it is to be observed 

 that the price of wheat as a general rule varied inversely as the quantity produced, 

 in other words, a very good harvest was succeeded by lower prices than the average, 

 a bad harvest was followed by higher prices, and the farmer was compensated in 

 a great degree by a higher price for the deficiency of the harvest ; thus in 1863 the 

 best harvest of the period, the production was 41 per cent, in excess of the average, 

 and the price fell to 40s. lid. per quarter, the result to the farmer being 10/. 0s. 6d. 

 per acre ; and in 1867 the harvest wa9 the worst of the period, 26 per cent, below the 

 average, but the price rose to 68s. 4d. per quarter, giving a result to the farmer of 

 8/. 17s. per acre. 



_ In 1873 we observe a marked change in this relation between quantity and 

 price, and it is obvious that some causes must have operated from that time to 

 depress prices to a very marked degree. Unfortunately for the producers, the six 

 years which followed 1873 have been years of very serious deficiency of pro- 

 duction ; as ah-eady shown the harvests have been 13 per cent, below the average. 

 In lieu, however, of rising in proportion to this deficiency, the price of wheat 

 has fallen somewhat lower than on the average of previous years. It has been 

 49s. Id. per quarter, as compared with 55s. 5f/., the average of the previous six 

 years of good harvests ; the result, therefore, in product per acre has been an 

 average for the six years of only 71. 9s., or exactly the average of the four years 

 1849-52, while the average of the last four years has been even lower, namely, 

 71. 4s. 5d. per acre, or 21. 8s. Qd. per acre below the average of the twenty years 

 from 1853 to 1872. It is obvious from these figures that the reduced product per 

 acre is due, not merely to the deficient quantity, but also to a fall of prices ; and 

 so far from the prices having risen in inverse proportion to the bad harvests, there 

 has been a distinct tendency to fall in spite of the bad harvests. 



From these figures it is easy to estimate how great has been the deficiency 

 to the producers of wheat upon their average crops of the last six years. The 

 present extent of wheat production in the United Kingdom is about 3,300,000 

 acres, and compared with the average of the previous twenty-four years, including 

 the bad years succeeding 1849, the last six show a reduction of gross product of 

 about 21. per acre, equal to an annual reduced gross return of 6,600,000/. For the 

 six years, then, the reduced return to the producers of this cereal has been 

 39,600,000/. It is quite clear, then, that the position of those farmers who rely 

 upon wheat for their main profit, and who have suffered most from the wet seasons 

 of the last few years, has been very serious, and the prospect of another bad 

 harvest must be most discouraging to them. 



Before, however, we examine the causes of this, and speculate as to the future, 

 let us look at the question from the point of view of the consumers. To the public 

 who are consumers the failure of the harvest is a matter of as much regret as to 

 the producers. It is the interest of all that the product should be plentiful. It 

 cannot, however, be said to be equally the interest of all that the price of wheat 

 should be high, or even that it should rise in proportion to the deficiency of 

 harvest. If the increased price were paid wholly to the producers of this country, 

 the money would at least remain here and be circulated again among the community; 

 but as the greater part of the wheat consumed now comes from abroad, a rise in 

 value not only raises the price to the home producer but also to the foreign pro- 

 ducer, and the increased price paid to the consumer is so much loss to the country 

 as a whole. For many years past the proportion of importations to the home pro- 

 duction of wheat has been increasing. Thirty years ago we imported little more 

 than one-fourth of our total consumption, during the last six years we have imported 

 considerably more than the half our total wants. Comparing the last six years 

 with the previous six years, it will be observed that the proportions of home 

 growth and foreign imports have been reversed ; in the first period we produced 

 12,000,000 quarters and imported 10,000,000 ; in the second period we produced 

 10,000,000 and imported 13,000,000 quarters. 



The following table will show at a glance how rapid has been the growth of 

 1879. I i 



