TRANSACTIONS OF SECTION F. 485 



seasons than in the good seasons ; it has had the effect of preventing the rise of 

 price in bad seasons. We can scarcely as yet estimate its effect upon the price 

 in average seasons or when harvests are above the average in this country. The 

 bad harvests here have been balanced by exceptionally good harvests in the States ; 

 we have yet to learn what may be the result upon prices here of indifferent 

 harvests in America. A diminished production of one bushel to the acre in this 

 • coimtry results in a loss of less than half a million of quarters ; a reduction to 

 the same amount in the United States will produce an aggregate loss of three and a 

 half million quarters, or one-third of her exporting power. A general bad harvest, 

 therefore, may even now materially interfere with her exports. In 1859, and again 

 in 1865 and 1866, the exports from America were reduced to very small amounts 

 by bad harvests, after having been exceptionally large, and there may be similar 

 variations in the future. It is probable also that the effect of the recent bad 

 seasons and low prices will be to reduce still further the acreage of wheat cultiva- 

 tion in this country. In future, therefore, we must look for an ever-increasing 

 requirement from abroad for our wheat consumption. An average harvest in this 

 country will produce not more than eleven million quarters, leaving twelve millions 

 for imports. A harvest 20 per cent, above the average will still necessitate the 

 importation of ten millions. It is quite possible, and indeed probable, that a bad 

 harvest in the States, coincident with a good harvest here, may raise the price of 

 wheat so as to give a large profit to the farmer. There are many questions also 

 affecting the future production in America and the future balance remaining for 

 exportation which have to be considered. The increase of population there is 

 rapid ; new districts become quickly peopled ; States which a few years ago were 

 large exporters are now producing no more than suflicent for their own consump- 

 tion; others are become importers, and every year the centre line of wheat 

 production is being carried farther to the westward. A general revival of trade 

 will probably increase the traffic rates of the Western railways and the Atlantic 

 freights. These and many other causes may in future tend to raise the average 

 price of wheat and other agricultural produce in the States. 



If I were to venture a prediction on so difficult and obscure a question, I would 

 incline to the opinion that wheat has during the past year reached its lowest point ; 

 that we have felt the maximum of the effect of the recent great extension of com 

 production in the Far West ; that with the revival of trade, the increase of popu- 

 lation both here and in the States, and the tendency to reduced cultivation 

 of wheat in this country, there will be a rise in the price of wheat ; and that, 

 coupled with better harvests in this country, or, at least, a return to average harvests, 

 we may find the product to the farmer in money such that the difference as com- 

 pared with the past is capable of adjustment by a comparatively slight reduction 

 of rent and wages. 



The business of farmers, especially in this country, where it is separated from 

 the ownership of land, and is connected with the land only by contracts of 

 short date, is one which cannot be carried on without such a rate of profit as 

 will induce capital to embark in it. It is certain, therefore, that such an adjust- 

 ment of profits, rents, and wages must be made as to enable the business to be 

 carried on, and it is probable that this adjustment will be made before the Royal 

 Commission recently appointed can conclude its labours. 



It may be worth while to point out that the competition of the Far West has 

 told upon other lands much nearer to it than our own country. The farming inte- 

 rest of the New England States, and even of some of the other Atlantic States, 

 has been much affected by it during the last few years. The value of land in these 

 States, remote from the larger towns, has been much reduced, and large numbers 

 of farmers from New England have been induced to leave their homes and settle 

 in the new opened-out district in the West. Their place has been taken in part by 

 Irishmen and in part by Frenchmen from Canada, who are content to farm in a 

 more humble maimer, and who can get a living by laborious and minute attention 

 which their predecessors disdained to give to the land. At the same time a great 

 change has come over the manufacturing industry of New England. It is not 

 many years ago that its factories were mainly supplied by the sons and daughters 



