066 report— 1878. 



MONDAY, AUGUS1 19, 1878. 



The following Papers were read : — 



1. Report of Committee on Common Measure of Value in Direct Taxation. 



See Reports, p. 220. 



2. The Periodicity of Commercial Crises, and its Physical Explanation. 

 By Professor W. Stanley Jevons, F.B.S. 



In this paper the author took up again the inquiry into the relation between 

 the solar spot period and commercial phenomena, which he had previously treated, 

 but, as he now believes, unsuccessfully, at the Bristol Meeting of the British Asso- 

 ciation (see Report for 1875, Transactions of Sections, p. 217). Observing that 

 commercial collapses have occurred in 1866, 1857, 1847, 1837 (in United States), 

 1825, and 1815, the author adopts the opinion of Dr. Hyde Clarke and others, 

 that such phenomena tend to recur in a, period of about ten years. 



He then points out that the series, although apparently broken (a crisis occur- 

 ring in 1809-10, rather than in 1805, when there was no great increase of bank- 

 ruptcy), may probably be traced back through the 18th century. There were 

 great crises in the years 1793 and 1763, and very distinct ones also in 1772-3 and 

 1783. The principal part of the paper was occupied with an attempt to show that 

 the great crisis of 1721, which followed the South Sea Bubble, falls into the series, 

 as it was preceded by " stock jobbing " manias about the years 1701 & 1711, and was 

 followed by one in 1732-33. There remains, in order to complete the whole series, 

 two periods, 1742 and 1752, when there were certainly no great manias, or crises. 

 But the author adduces evidence of a certain weight to show that in those years 

 there were remarkable rises in the price of wool, and about 1752-53, there was a 

 marked rise in the price of tin, which forms one of the best indications of commercial 

 activity and good credit. He believes, then, that trade reached maxima of activity 

 in or about the years 1701, 1711, 1721, 1732, 1742, 1753, 1763, 1772, 1783, 1793 

 (1805 ?), 1815, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866. The intervals vary from 9 to 

 12 years ; the average interval is 10'3 years. But, as the earlier dates, 1701 and 

 1711, are not well established, and the panic of 1866 was probably premature, as 

 shown by comparison with the three preceding panics, the author prefers to com- 

 pare the undoubted collapse of 1721 with that of 1857, giving a mean interval of 

 10 - 46 years. If we take the year 1763, which was also a year of well marked 

 crisis, and compare it with 1857, we obtain 10'444. The mean length of the com- 

 mercial period is thus almost identical with Mr. J. A. Broun's estimate of the 

 sunspot period, namely, 1045 years, which again is almost exactly the same as 

 Lamont's earlier estimate. 



The author infers that the phenomena are probably connected ; but, as he and 

 other inquirers have failed in discovering a like cycle in the price of corn, he 

 believes that the connection must be sought rather in the varying produce of the 

 crops in the tropical or other countries, where the meteorological influence of the 

 solar period has already been detected. In corroboration of this opinion he points 

 out that the exports of goods from England to India, when graphically represented, 

 display a certain appearance of decennial variation, especially in the earlier part 

 of the 18th century. 



In conclusion he alludes to the contemporary state of trade, quoting a statement 



