Influence of Credit on Prices 47 



Minerals and metals in Germany occupy an intermediate place 

 between the ones belonging to that group of commodities in Eng- 

 land and the United States. There is least speculation in min- 

 erals in England, shown by a late fall and early rise. There is 

 most speculation in this group of commodities in the United 

 States, as evidenced by an early fall and a late rise. Now in 

 Germany, minerals and metals fall early but they also rise early. 

 This latter fact may be accounted for, not so much by lack of 

 speculation, as by an early disposition in Germany to form car- 

 tels and restrict production. Indeed the Germans are the path- 

 finders in the matter of pools and combines. 



Food prices in Germany in the crisis of 1857 agree with the 

 action of food prices in England during that crisis : the fall is 

 early and the rise late. England maintains this order in the later 

 crises, but Germany shows a tendency to defer the fall of agri- 

 cultural products. These show on the average a late fall and a 

 late rise. The keeping up of food prices, notwithstanding the 

 complaints of the agriculturists, is probably due to the fact that 

 the tariffs of Germany are more effectual than is popularly 

 supposed. 



In the interpretation of these tables the inference has been 

 drawn, as stated above, that the commodities which are hardest 

 hit by crises are those which not. only experience the heaviest fall 

 in price, but those which in addition suffer the longest period of 

 depression, i.e. fall first and rise last. The groups of commodi- 

 ties which meet these three conditions — a large spread of prices, 

 an early fall, and a late rise — have been selected out for each 

 country with very satisfactory results : 



87 



