The Kinetic Theory of Economic Crises 43 



downfall of agriculture. Better crops fed the mouths even if 

 the prices were not such as to enable the agricultural interests to 

 maintain their old footing. But by 1883 there was a temporary 

 slackening of demand for transportation from the wheat inter- 

 ests. The iron interests also needed less transportation. Railroad 

 building fell off in a marked degree in the United States in the 

 years 1883-85. The American home demand could consequently 

 be supplied from the growing domestic steel and iron industries. 

 There was a consequent slackening of demand on both sides ; but 

 as the English demand for wheat had formerly exceeded the 

 American demand for iron, now a let-up in those reciprocal de- 

 mands caused a reversal of the disturbed merchandise equilibrium ; 

 the scale was tipped the other way until, indeed, in the fiscal years 

 1888-89 there was actually a slight balance against the United 

 States. The causes, however, had by that time somewhat 

 changed. 



Whether the stimulus for this reversal of the merchandise 

 equilibrium came from the United States or from England, as 

 between the two, is a different question. The physical analogy 

 is satisfied by an examination of the reversal and of the changed 

 quantities which go to make up the new equilibrium. These we 

 have noted to be the decrease in demand for iron from the United 

 States and the decrease in the demand for wheat from Europe. 

 The total commerce decreases and the balance of merchandise 

 turns gradually and irregularly against the United States. These 

 are familiar facts, and can best be described without departing 

 much from the language of government experts and trade statis- 

 ticians. To attain to. a high self-consciousness with respect to 

 them is, however, quite another matter. So far, they appeal to 

 us solely through the physical analogy of disturbance of 

 equilibrium. An equilibrium is balanced, or even, scales. If one 

 scale is weighed down, the balance is restored by a weight in 

 the other. Gold and credit are the means of keeping the total 

 balance even, when the merchandise balance is disturbed. But 

 the analogy of the scales is more significant if we suppose indus- 

 try to consist of a series of scales, and that the disturbance of 

 one disturbs all the rest. Thus a change in the international 



43 



