State Bank Notes. 55 



Under Method (4) it would be between 10 and 20 millions 

 more. Under Method (3) it mis^ht in a very unfavorable 

 case be 20 millions more, but with a slower decline of 

 silver the added expense would be nearer the 12 millions or 

 so (between 10 and 15) which would accompany a stationary 

 price of silver. Under Method (3 ) this average cost through 

 ten years represents a smaller cost in the earlier years and 

 a heavier one in the later years, if silver falls. It is only 

 under Method (3) that we have to anticipate a cost, for 

 the average annual addition of money and extinction of 

 bank notes, exceeding by more than about 15 millions the 

 cost that has already become habitual. Method (3), if 

 silver should fall rapidly, would be burdensome after a few 

 years, particularly if the annual issue of notes were much 

 more than the 24 millions reckoned in the table; but no 

 one wishes to see that method adopted if silver is to fall 

 rapidly; and in any case, the extinction of bank notes 

 within a dozen years would contribute only 12 or 14 mil- 

 lions annually to the burden. Under any of the more prob- 

 able forms of dealing with silver the sacrifice of the country, 

 in extinguishing the bank notes while it increased the 

 whole circulation as usual, would not exceed by more than 

 about 15 millions the sacrifice that is already customary; 

 and it might not exceed that at all. Remembering that in 

 place of an annual cost of between 40 and 60 millions for 

 the near future, which has been the implied basis of the 

 present reckoning because it was the average cost for the 

 past few years (see page 49), we might have for a part of 

 the time, as in 1879-82, a cost of 100 millions attended by 

 great commercial prosperity— remembering, too, that it 

 takes more than an occasional waste of 20 or 30 millions 

 by Congress to make an appreciable difference in the course 

 of business — it seems unlikely that the withdrawal of all 

 the national bank notes within ten years can give a sensi- 

 ble check to business. Indeed, the greatest expense for 

 new money comes just at the time when the country can 

 best afiPord it, in times of rapid growth of business; and 

 just at the time when there is need of a check upon excessive 

 speculation. 



