1909.] OUTLOOK OF SEISMIC GEOLOGY. 287 



found in the case of most large earthquakes in the behavior of rails 

 and bridges.*^ 



Part II : The Outlook of Seismic Geology. 



The Ultimate Cause of Earthquakes. — No one should be deceived 

 into concluding that because we seem to have found some evidence 

 of the nature of the process by which the external shell of our planet 

 undergoes its adjustment at the time of an earth shock, we have 

 thereby discovered the ultimate cause of earthquakes. That is a 

 far deeper problem, to which the discovery of the proximate cause 

 is but an initial stepping stone. It is in this field that the deeper 

 secrets lie hidden. The outlook of the science indicates two lines 

 of effort to be followed up. These are: (i) To make practical 

 application of the knowledge already gained, and (2) to investigate 

 with every possible improvement in method until we have so laid 

 bare the laws of seisms that we may forecast the time, the place and 

 the probable severity of future earthquakes with at least as much 

 accuracy and forewarning as is now possible in weather prediction. 



Earthquake Forecasts. — It is much to be feared that the science 

 of earthquakes is to pass through a stage not unlike that in meteor- 

 ology which ushered in the day of scientific prognostication. Judg- 

 ing from statements which have been published, a " Farmer's 

 Almanac " of earthquakes and popular earthquake prophets may be 

 looked for as a possibility of the near future. It will be well, there- 

 fore, to consider the nature of the earthquake forecasts which have 

 been so widely advertised. Examined with care it is found that 

 these, in so far as they have found any verification, apply to a 

 single, though the most important, seismic zone, and that all are 

 indefinite as to the time and largely so as to place. Dr. Omori, of 

 Tokyo, after the California earthquake of 1906, made a forecast 

 which he himself subsequent to its partial verification reported as 

 follows :*^ 



As to the probable position of the next great shock on the Pacific side 

 of America I expressed my view that it would be to the south of the equator 



*^ Hobbs, " A Study of the Damage to Bridges During Earthquakes," 

 Jour. Geol., Vol. 16, 1908, pp. 636-653. 

 " Bull. E. I. C, Vol. I, No. I, p. 23. 



