ON THE RECENT PROGRESS OF AGKICULTDRE IN INDIA. 533 



has been 29 millions. But if we take only British territory, and exclncle 

 Upper Burmah as a fresh acquisition, it appears that the population has 

 risen by nearly 19 millions,' or by 14^ millions if we exclude Bengal, 

 which it is necessary to do because the Bengal figures are omitted from 

 the returns, the land revenue system which obtains in Bengal affording 

 no facilities for their compilation. The proportionate increase in the 

 area under review during the six years comprised in the returns would 

 be about 8,700,000; so that for each extra mouth to be fed we have 

 nearly 'SI acre of additional cultivation. This is not much, seeing that, 

 according to the figures given by the Famine Commission in 1880, the 

 ratios of the cropped area in the principal provinces ranged from "88 of 

 an acre per head in the Novth-West Provinces to 1"9 acres in the Central 

 Provinces. 



The second statement I have prepared (Statement B) shows the 

 extension of the irrigated area during the same six years. The increase 

 due to the inclusion of Upper Burmah is 40U,000 acres, so that the exten- 

 sion of the irrigated area in India generally, less Bengal, may be taken 

 at 4^ million acres, from 23 million in 1885-6 to 27^ million in 1889-90.^ 

 The figures include all sources of water supply — Government and private 

 canals, tanks, wells, and hill streams. It is not possible to state with 

 precision the portion of this area which is iri'igated by Government canals 

 because the Bombay returns of land irrigated in that way include also 

 the acreage watered from canals which are the property of pi-ivate 

 persons. But I may estimate the area irrigated by Government canals 

 at nine million acres. The Famine Commissioners assumed that an acre 

 of irrigated land can produce enough food to support 25 people. It is 

 safe to suppose that at least 2^ million out of the 4| million acres newly 

 brought under irrigation were unfilled before, thus allowing 2 million 

 acres as old cultivation now improved by being ii'rigated. On these 

 data, with the additional assumption that one unirrigated acre will yield 

 enough food for one person in the year, we may calculate that 4^ million 

 acres of fresh irrigation will produce enough food for 9j million people. 

 I have shown that the increase of the cultivated area, irrigated and 

 unirrigated, amounts to seven million acres ; so that, on the supposition 

 — too favourable a one — that the whole addition to the tilled breadth is 

 given to food crops, we have an additional food supply for 11;| millions 

 to set against an actual increase of 8,700,000 in the population. Without 

 pretending that this result possesses any greater degree of accuracy than 

 is warranted by the nature of the returns and suppositions on which it is 

 founded, I think it a safe genex'al conclusion that the agi-icultural deve- 

 lopment which is implied in the extension of cultivation and the extension 

 of irrigation keep pace, and do not do much more than keep pace with 

 the simultaneous increase in the numbers of the people. 



This is not a stai-tling conclusion ; and it is one, I think, to be 

 weighed with sobriety of judgment, with a mind neither specially elated 

 nor unduly depressed. There are physical limits, of course, to the exten- 

 sion of cultivation, and to the application of that most obvious and in 

 many places, but not in all, most useful of Indian agricultural improve- 



' Year 188] Population 198,655,160 



Year 1891 Population 217,487,370 



Ditlerence + 18,832,210 



" I exclude the figures for 1S84-5 because in that year statistics for Bombay and 

 Sindh are not available. 



