6 jtKrouT— 189S. 



suitable for wheat. In any case, owing to our cold, damp cliiuate and 

 capricious weather, the wheat crop is hazardous, and for tlie present our 

 annual deficit of 180,000,000 bushels must be imported. A permanently 

 higher price for wheat is, I fear, a calamity tiiat ere long must be faced. 

 At enhanced prices, land now under wheat will be better farmed, and 

 therefore will yield better, thus giving increased production witliout 

 increased area. 



The burning question of to-day is. What can the United Kingdom do 

 to be reasonably safe from starvation in pn^sence of two successive 

 failures of the world's wheat harvest, or against a hostile combination of 

 European nations ? We eagerly spend millions to j^i'otcct our coasts and 

 commerce ; and millions moi'e on ships, explosives, guns, and men ; but 

 we omit to take necessary precautions to supply ourselves with the very 

 first and supremely important munition of war — food. 



To take up the question of food-supply in its scientific aspect, I 

 must not confine myself exclusively to our own national requirements. 

 The problem is not restricted to the British Isles — the bread-eaters of the 

 whole world share the perilous prospect — and I do not think it out of place 

 if on this occasion I ask you to take with me a wide, general survey of 

 the wheat supply of the Avhole world. 



Wheat is the most sustaining food grain of the great Caucasian race, 

 which includes the peoples of Europe, United States, British America, tlie 

 white inhabitants of South Africa, Australasia, parts of South America, 

 and the white population of tlie European colonies. Of late years the in- 

 dividual consumption of wheat has almost universally increased. In 

 Scandinavia it has risen 100 per cent, in twenty-five years ; in Austro- 

 Hungary, 80 per cent. ; in France, 20 per cent. ; while in Belgium it has 

 inci'eased 50 per cent. Only in Russia and Italy, and possibly Turkey, 

 has the consumption of wheat per head declined. 



In 1871 the bread-eaters of the world numbered 371,000,000. In 1881 

 the numbers rose to 416,000,000 ; in 1891, to 472,600,000, and at the 

 present time they number 516,500,000. The augmentation of the world's 

 bread-eating population in a geometrical ratio is evidenced by the fact that 

 the yearly aggregates grow progressively larger. In the early seventies 

 they rose 4,300,000 per annum,' while in the eighties they increased by more 

 than 6,000,000 per annum, necessitating annual additions to the bread 

 supply nearly one-half gi-eater than sufficed twenty-five years ago. 



How much wheat will be required to supply all the.se hungry mouths 

 with bread ? At the present moment it is not possible to get accurate 

 estimates of this year's wheat crops of the world, but an adequate idea 

 may be gained from the realised crops of some countries and the promise 

 of others. To supply 516,500,000 bread-eaters, if each bread-eatuig unit 

 is to have his usual ration, will require a total of 2,324,000,000 bushels 

 for seed and food. AVhat are our prospects of obtaining this amount ? 



According to the best authorities the total supplies from the 1897-98 



