ADDRESS. 7 



harvest are 1,921,000,000 bushels.' The requirement of the 516,500,000 

 bread-eaters for seed and food are 2,324,000,000 bushels ; there is thus a 

 dertcit of 403,000,000 bushels, which has not been urgently apparent 

 owing to a surplus of 300,000,000 bushels carried over from the last 

 harvest. Respecting the prospects of the harvest year just beginning it 

 must be borne in mind that there are no remainders to bring over from 

 last harvest. We start with a deficit of 103,000,000 bushels and have 

 6,500,000 more mouths to feed. It follows, therefore, that one-sixth of the 

 required bread will be lacking unless larger drafts than now seem possible 

 can be made upon early produce from the next harvest.^ 



The majority of the wheat crops between 1882 and 1896 were in excess 

 of current needs, and thus considerable reserves of wheat were available 

 for supplementing small deficits from the four deficient harvests. But bread - 

 eaters have almost eaten up the reserves of wheat, and the 1897 harvest 

 being under average, the conditions become serious.-' That scarcity and 

 high prices have not prevailed in recent years is due to the fact that since 

 1889 we have had seven world crops of wheat and six of rye abundantly 

 in excess of the average. These generous crops increased accumula- 

 tions to such an extent as to obscure the fact that the harvests of 1895 

 and 1896 were each much below current requirements. Practically speak- 

 ing, reserves are now exhausted, and bread- eaters must be fed from current 

 harvests — accumulation under present conditions being almost impossible. 

 This is obvious from the fact that a harvest equal to that of 1894 (the 

 greatest crop on record, both in acre-yield and in the aggregate) would 

 yield less than current needs.* 



It is clear we are confronted with a colossal problem that must tax the 

 wits of the wisest. When the bread-eaters have exhausted all possible 

 supplies from the 1897-98 harvest, there will be a deficit of 103,000,000 

 bushels of wheat, with no substitution possible unless Europeans can be 

 induced to eat Indian com or rye bread. Up to recent years the growth 

 of wheat has kept pace with demands. As wheat-eaters increased, the 

 acreage under wheat expanded. The world has become so familiarised 

 with the orderly sequence of demand and supply, so accustomed to look 

 upon the vast plains of other wheat-growing countries as inexhaustible 

 granaries, that, in a light-hearted way it is taken for granted that so many 

 million additional acres can be added year after year to the wheat-growing 

 area of the world. We forget that the wheat-growing area is of strictly 

 limited extent, and that a few million acres regularly absorbed, soon 

 mount to a formidable number. 



The present position being so gloomy, let us consider future prospects. 

 What are the capabilities as regards available area, economic conditions, 

 and acreage yield of the wheat-growing countries from whence we now draw 

 our supply ? 



' Appendix B. '-' Appendix C. 



' Appendix D. * Apppendix E. 



