12 REPORT— 1898. 



could supply three times her present amount of wheat, although no increase 

 is likely unless the cotton fields of the Delta are diverted to grain grow- 

 ing. In Algeria and Tunis nearly all reclaimed lands are devoted to the 

 production of wine, for which a brisk demand exists. Were this land 

 devoted to the growth of wheat, an additional five million bushels might 

 be obtained. 



The enormous acreage devoted to wheat in India has been declining 

 for some years, and in 1895 over 20,000,000 acres yielded 185,000,000 

 bushels. Seven-eighths of this harvest is required for native consumption, 

 and only one-eighth on an average is available for export. The annual 

 increase of population is more than 3,000,000, demanding an addition to 

 the food-bearing lands of not less than 1,800,000 acres annually. In 

 recent years the increase has been less than one-fourth of this amount.' 



In surveying the limitations and vicissitudes of wheat crops, I have 

 endeavoured to keep free from exaggeration, and have avoided insistance 

 on doubtful points. I have done my best to get trustworthy facts and 

 figures, but from the nature of the case it is impossible to attain complete 

 accuracy. Great caution is required in sifting the numerous varying 

 current statements respecting the estimated areas and total produce of 

 wheat throughout the world. The more closely ofhcial estimates are 

 examined, the more defective are they found, and comparatively few 

 figures are sufficiently well established to bear the deductions often drawn. 

 In doubtful cases I haVe applied to the highest authorities in each country, 

 and in the case of conflicting accounts have taken data the least favour- 

 able to sensational or panic- engendering statements. In a few instances 

 of accurate statistics their value is impaired by age ; but for 95 per cent, 

 of my figures I quote good authorities, while for the remaining 5 per cent. 

 I rely on the best commercial estimates derived from the appearance of 

 the growing crops, the acreage under cultivation, and the yield last year. 

 The maximum probable error would make no appreciable difference in my 

 argument. 



The facts and figures I have set before you are easily interjiroted. 

 Since 1871 unit consumption of wheat, including seed, has slowly increased 

 in the United Kingdom to the present amount of 6 bushels per head per 

 annum ; while the rate of consumption for seed and food by the whole 

 world of bread-eaters was 4"15 bushels per unit per annum for the eight 

 years ending 1878, and at the present time is 4-5 bushels. Under present 

 conditions of low acre yield, wheat cannot long retain its dominant posi- 

 tion among the food-stuffs of the civilised world. The details of the 

 impending catastrophe no one can predict, but its general direction is 

 obvious enough. Should all the wheat-growing countries add to their 

 area to the utmost capacity, on the most careful calculation the yield 

 would give us only an addition of some 100,000,000 acres, supplying at the 

 average world-yield of 12-7 bushels to the acre, 1,270,000,000 bushels, 



' Appendix L. 



