ADDRESS. 13 



just enough to supply the increase of population among bread- eaters till 

 the year 1931. ^ 



At the present time there exists a deficit in the wheat area of 31,000 

 square miles— a deficit masked by the fact that the ten world crops of 

 wheat harvested in the ten years ending 1896 were more than 5 per cent, 

 above the average of the previous twenty-six years. 



When provision shall have been made, if possible, to feed 230,000,000 

 units likely to be added to the bread-eating populations by 1931 — by the 

 complete occupancy of the arable areas of the temperate zone now parti- 

 ally occupied — where can be grown the additional 330,000,000 bushels of 

 wheat required ten years later by a hungry world 1 What is to hajapen 

 if the present rate of population be maintained, and if arable areas of 

 sufiicient extent cannot be adapted and made contributory to the subsist- 

 ence of so great a host ? 



Are we to go hungry and to know the trial of scarcity ? That is the 

 poignant question. Thirty years is but a day in the life of a nation. 

 Those present who may attend the meeting of the British Association 

 thirty years hence will judge how far my forecasts are justified. 



If bread fails — not only us, but all the bread-eaters of the world 

 what are we to do ? We are born wheat-eaters. Other races, vastly 

 superior to us in numbers, but differing widely in material and intellectual 

 progress, are eaters of Indian corn, rice, millet, and other grains; but 

 none of these grains have the food value, the concenti-ated health-sus- 

 taining power of wheat, and it is on this account that the accumulated 

 experience of civilised mankind has set wheat apart as the fit and proper 

 food for the development of muscle and brains. 



It is said that when other wheat-exporting countries realise that the 

 States can no longer keep pace with the demand, these countries will 

 extend their area of cultivation, and struggle to keep up the supply pari 

 jmssu with the falling ofi" in other quarters. But will this comfortable 

 and cherished doctrine bear the test of examination ? 



Cheap production of wheat depends on a variety of causes, varying 

 greatly in different countries. Taking the cost of producing a given 

 quantity of wheat in the United Kingdom at 100s., the cost for the same 

 amount in the United States is 67s., in India 66s., and in Eussia 54s. 

 We require cheap labour, fertile soil, easy transportation to market, low 

 taxation and rent, and no export or import duties. Labour will rise in 

 price, and fertility diminish as the requisite manurial constituents in the 

 virgin soil become exhausted. Facility of transportation to market will 

 be aided by railways, but these are slow and costly to construct, and it 

 will not pay to carry wheat by rail beyond a certain distance. These 

 corsiderations show that the price of wheat tends to increase. On the 

 other hand, the artificial impediments of taxation and customs duties tend 

 to diminish as demand increases and prices rise. 



' Appen ?.is M. 



o 



