Comment 



Initial examination of the 1980 survey data seemingly indicates a 

 highly precise estimate. For example, both the percentages of the 

 estimated population sampled and that of recaptures made were 1.5 times 

 greater than those of other surveys. The estimates of phi were among 

 the least variable and had the smallest standard errors of all surveys. 

 It was the only year in which no significant outmigration was indicated. 

 The trawl effort expended (number of tows per week) varied least among 

 the surveys. However, elsewhere in the 1980 data are indications that 

 the population measured may not have been entirely the one for which the 

 survey was intended. Over 75% of the winter flounder branded were 

 classified as fish of unknown sex, far more than any other survey except 

 1979 (65%). This indicated that mostly smaller (and non-spawning ?) 

 fish were taken as was also evidenced by the significantly smaller mean 

 lengths of age 3 and older winter flounder determined in comparison with 

 other years. Additionally, the numbers estimated within age classes for 

 the 1980 population did not correspond with the estimated numbers of 

 those a year younger in 1979 or a year older in 1981 (see Table 24) . 



Two reasons probably accounted for the above findings. The first 

 is that the 1980 survey started in mid-March, the latest since 1975, and 

 therefore may have missed many spawning adults. Secondly, only one haul 

 was made at Station 5, which in 1981 and 1982 (personal observation) 

 contained the majority of the spawning adults. Thus the 1980 estimate 

 may have missed the majority of the adult winter flounder present in the 

 Niantic River that year. However precise the estimate seems, Cormack 

 (1968) notes that there is a serious error in being too precise and 

 quotes Paulik as saying "an approximately right answer is always preferred 

 to a highly precise but wrong answer". 



40 



