Appendix XIV. Time-series models used to describe the log-transformed density {no./500 m) of larval Ammodytes americanus 

 collected at stations EN and NB and analytical summary. 



Station = EN 



Model' : Z, = /?|5(l f RiSmitK^) - BjCOSilKs) ' B^SmilKi) + RsCOSitKt)) I Ai + A2 



Model summary statistics: SSE ^ 627.5, df = 515, MSE = 1.22, R^ ^ 0.74 



SSE 



df 



MSE 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Above Below 



13.4 

 16.4 



Station == NB 



Model' : Z, = BiS{\ + B2Sm{lK6) - R^COSilKf) - BiSINitK^) h BsCOSitKi)) + At + A2 + A^ + Af,o 



Model summary statistics: SSE = 170.0, df = 355, MSE = 0.48, R^ = 0.92 



Year 



SSE 



df 



MSE 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Above Below 



19.1 

 0.2 



0.7 

 19.0 



Z, - mean of LOG((no./500 m ) f 1) 



/?„ ^ regression coefficients 



t - time in days 



K^ ~ constant for period of duration m months 



Ap ~ autoregressive coefficients at lag p 



Mp ^ moving average coefficients at lag p 



S " dummy variable for season (see Table 7) 



annual component of SSE 



MSE " SSE/df 



Significanlly higher than the model MSE, F statistic (p 



0.05) 



87 



