Appendix XV. Time-series models used to describe the log-transformed catch (no./24 h) or Anchoa spp. impinged at MNPS 



Unit 2 and analytical summary. 



Model' : Z, - «|F(/2(l - flz-^'M"^!:) ^ B^COSitKn) " BiSINilKs) t RiCOS{tKf,)) - Ay - A2 - A^ -*- Af, + Ai - Ag 

 iVIodel summary statistics: SSE = 1729.8, df = 510, MSE - 3.39. r' = 0.69 



Year 



MSE 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Above Below 



1976 

 1977 

 1978 

 1979 

 1980 

 1981 

 1982 

 1983 

 1984 

 1985 



146.9 

 82.3 

 195.0 

 164:9 

 122.4 

 331.5 

 250.1 

 259.4 



2.20 



2.16 



3.67 



2.06 



4.76* 



4.12 



3.06 



8.29* 



6.25* 



6.49* 



1) 



Z, = mean of LOG((no./24 h) 



/?„ = regression coefficients 



t =• time in days 



K^ = constant for period of duration m months 



Ap ~ autoregressive coefficients at lag p 



Wp ~ moving average coefficients at lag p 



FV7 ~- water flow through Unit 2 



annual component of SSE 



MSE = SSE/df 



Significantly higher than the model MSE, F statistic (p 



34.3 

 30.3 

 67.9 



0.05) 



88 



