Appendix XVI. Time-series models used to describe the log-transformed density (no./500 m ) of Anchoa spp. eggs collected at 



E N and analytical summary. 



Model" : Z, = ByS{D2SIN(tKu) " B-iCOS{tKn) + B^SIN{lKf) + BsCOSilK^)) + /ii + Ai+ M7 

 Model summary statistics: SSE = 279.3, df = 357, MSE = 0.83, R = 0.84 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Year SSe'' df MSE'^ Above Below 



19.6 8.1 



19.6 9.5 



2.5 20.0 



Z, = mean of LOG((no./500 m ) + 1) 



/?„ - regression coefficients 



t = time in days 



Af^ = constant for period of duration m months 



A = autoregressive coefficients at lag p 



Wp ~ moving average coefficients at lag p 



5 - dummy variable for season (see Table 7) 



annual component of SSE 



MSE - SSE/df 



Significantly higher than the model MSE, F statistic (p > 0.05) 



89 



