Appendix XVII. Time-series models used to describe the log-transFormed density (no./500 m' ) of larval Anrhoa spp. collected 

 at BN and NB and analytical summary. 



Station - RN 



Model' : Z, - /?,.s(l I B^SINitKf,) + RsCOS{tKs) • BaSINitK^.) BsCOS(tK-i)) ^ /i, )■ A-fj I A/, 



Model summary .statistics: SSF, - 336.5, df - 514, MSB - 0.65, r' - 0.93 



Year 



SSE 



df 



MSE 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Above Below 



1976 

 1977 

 1978 

 1979 

 1980 

 1981 

 1982 

 1983 

 1984 

 1985 



18.0 

 18.6 

 79.7 

 22.8 

 24.9 

 33.6 

 27.0 

 35.5 

 46.9 

 29.4 



43 



Station -^ NR 

 Model' : Z, - R\S(\ - B2.SllV{lKt) I HjCnSitKi) niSIN{lKj) + BsCOS{lKj)) 

 Model summary statistics: SSE - 269.2, df - 359, MSE = 0.75, R^ - 0.92 



Year 



SSE 



df 



MSE 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Above Below 



1979 

 1980 

 1981 

 1982 

 1983 

 1984 

 1985 



32.2 

 34.9 

 55.9 

 16.2 

 29.2 

 59.6 

 41.2 



1) 



Z, - mean of I.OG((no,/500 m) 



/?„ ~ regression coefficients 



t - time in days 



K'n, ~ constant for period of duration m months 



,-tp autoregressive coefficients at lag p 



M ' moving average coefTicients at lag p 



5 ~ dummy variable for season (.see Table 7) 



annual component of SSE 



MSR - SSE/df 



Significantly higher than the model MSR, R statistic (p 0.05) 



90 



