Appendix XIX. (continued) 



Station = WP 



Moder : X, = ByS{\ + HiSW^tKyi) \- B-!,COS{tKxi) i B^SmitKf,) - RsCOS{tKf,)) 



Model summary statistics: SSE ^ 15.6, df ^ 194, MSB = 0.08, r' = 0.81 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 



Year SSe'' df MSE'^ Above Below 



r969 ol ~~ 



1970 0.7 



1971 0.6 



1972 1.0 

 197.3 0..3 



1974 1..? 6 0.22* 1.7 0.2 



1975 1.6 6 0.26* 1.2 1.1 



1976 1.1 6 0.19* 0.2 2.2 



1977 0.5 



1978 1.0 



1979 0.7 



1980 0.5 



1981 0.9 



1982 1.4 6 0.23* 1.7 1.0 



1983 1.4 6 0.21* 1.8 0.9 



1984 1.1 6 0.18* 1.5 1.5 



1985 1.2 6 0.20* 2.3 0.2 



Z, - mean of LOG((no./100 m) + 1) 



R„ ^ regression coefficients 



t ^ time in days 



K„ ~ constant for period of duration m months 



Ap ~ autoregressive coefficients at lag p 



Mp ~ moving average coefficients at lag p 



5 ~ dummy variable for season (see Table 7) 



annual component of SSE 



MSE - SSE/df 



Significantly higher than the model MSE, E statistic (p - 0.05) 



93 



