Appendix XX. Time-series models used to describe the log-transformed catch (no./24 h) of Menidia spp. impinged at MNPS 



Unit 2 and analytical summ ary. 



Model" : Z, = S,Fl/2(l + B^SINilKn) + BjCOSilKn)) ^ A, - A2 + /(u - An 

 Model summary statistics: SSE = 1349.4, df - 514, MSB = 2.63, r' = 0.75 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Year SSE*' df MSE'' Above Below 



1) 



Z^ - mean of LOG((no./24 h) 



B„ - regression coefficients 



t ~ time in days 



K„ ~ constant for period of duration m months 



A- ^ autoregressive coefficients at lag p 



M„ - moving average coefficients at lag p 



FV2 -■ water fiow through Unit 2 



annual component of SSE 



MSE = SSE/df 



Significantly higher than the model MSE, F statistic (p 



0.05) 



94 



