Appendix XXV II. Time-series models used to describe the log-transformed density (no./SOO m ) of larval Tautogolabrus 

 adspersus collected at stations EN and NB and analytical summary. 



Station = EN 



Model : 



Z, - /?,,S( - B2SIN{lKi2) - niCOSilKu) " BiSl/VilKf) - BsCOS{tKi) + BtSINitK^) + BiCOS(tK2)) + A^ I- A^ - A-i + A^ 



Model summary statistics: SSE = 152.5, df = 511, MSE = 0.30, R^ - 0.72 



Year 



SSE 



df 



MSE 



Sum of deviations from model forecast 

 Above Below 



1.1 



4.7 



Station - NB 

 Model' : Z, = BiS{ - B2SIN(tKi2) - B3COS{lKt2) " B^SmilKt) - BsCOS{tKi)) 

 Model summary statistics: SSE = 142.3, df = 360, MSE = 0.40, R^ = 0.85 



SSE 



df 



MSE 



Suiji of deviations from model forecast 

 Above Below 



t - time in days 



K^ constant for period of duration m months 



/(p =" auloregressive coefficients at lag p 



M„ ~ moving average coefficients at lag p 



5 - dummy variable for season (see Table 7) 



annual component of SSE 



MSE - SSE/df 



Significantly higher than the model MSE, F statistic (p 



0.05) 



101 



