of adult winter flounder outside the river in winter and early spring, with little change in the catch of 

 adults over the l!-yr period. Values ranged from 1.8 to 5.3 in all years except 1981, when a peak value 

 of 8.2 was found. Although the Niantic River spawning population apparently reached its lowest level in 

 1986, the median outside the river was the third highest (4.7). The reason for this difference in abundance 

 and distribution is unknown. Water temperature is an important factor in winter flounder distribution. 

 However, based on MNPS operating records, water temperature in 1981 was the closest to the annual 

 February-April mean over the U-yr period and the mean for 1986 was only slightly higher than 1985. 

 The coldest year of the series was 1976 and the warmest was 1983. 



Table 8. Mean and median CPUE of Niantic River winter flounder larger than 15 cm from 



1976 through 1986 during the period of mid-March through mid-April. 



Zero when data are distributed symmetrically 



Both the Jolly model and its application to the Niantic River winter flounder were evaluated several 

 times by NUEL (NUSCo 1980, 1983b, 1986a). In the first two reviews, data were examined for the 

 violation of assumptions or conditions of the model generally as set forth by Bishop and Sheppard (1973), 

 Roff" (1973a, 1973b), Southwood (1978), Begon (1979), Balser (1981), and Amason and Mills (1981). 

 Most assumptions were met, although the possibility existed that some emigration outside the survey area 

 was not permanent and marked winter flounder re-entered the river. This assumption requires that all 

 emigration from the study area be permanent and therefore indistinguishable from death in the model. If 



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