sllversides in the winter trawl and impingement catches was evidence of 

 migrations into deeper water. Models of silversides described the 

 pattern of observed fluctuations reasonably well; in some cases the 1983 

 forecast error was lower than the actual model error, indicating little 

 deviation from historical average variability. 



9 0- 



6 0- 



3 0- ~ 



0- 



-3 0- 



V-__. 



<:>i><>i>4><:>'^^ 



++++++++ 



OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JJN AUG 



10 



5.0- 







-5 



* *-3nr3r-*-=r* 



OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AUG 



O 1982 data * 1983 data 



Figure 12. Forecast (- 



-) and 95% confidence limits ( ) for Menidia 



spp. trawled at IN (top) and NR (bottom). Both models 

 were fit to data from January 1976 through September 1982, 



26 



