programs at MNPS. 



^<1 rpf)resstQn models 



Ichthyoplankto 

 (eqs)*) 



EN ; = D SSlnlf^ )-B 



t I 60 ? 



I t-1 ;"t-2" 



EN I --B SCos(tlI I'B 



t 1 IZ 2 



B 5ComK_| 



,Cos(t 



SSln(tK !-■< SCoiltK ).r< SSInCtf )• 



NB 



12 7 



NB 7 "-B SCo5(tl< )'B 



12 3 



't-5 '.'t-52 

 ,Wn(tK^|.B^SCDMtl>^l 

 SinltK l-B SCo5(tK )»B SSlr 

 51n(tK )-B SCl)t(tK )-B S5ir 



(tK l-B SCosltK ) 



23.") 31* 23.9 52 



2.« 209 2.0 12 



1*.* 224 23.7 12 



"..O 2U 2,8 52 



an of the In transformBd catch«i In a sampl 

 qr.nlon coefficients 



nst^nt to use for period of duration m (won 



toreqresslon coefficients 



sidual (predicted-observed) 



asonal coefficient 



mher of observations contributing to the »e 



density data included season as a significant multiplicative regressor 

 (see Table 4) . The only long-term cycle (5-yr) was in the larval 

 entralnment model. The harmonic regressions had high R*^ values and low 

 forecast errors. The 1983 egg data followed model predictions very 

 closely; the actual larval data were not predicted as well (Fig, 24). 



The tautog is a popular sport fish in Connecticut (Sampson 1981) . 

 Fish from this taxon prefer rocky shores such as those surrounding 

 Millstone. This type of habitat cannot be sampled effectively by either 

 trawl or seine and therefore tautog were not found in these programs. 

 Even though the intakes are located near preferred habitat, the fish was 

 not impinged in large numbers. Locally spawning tautog produced 

 abundant pelagic eggs and both eggs and larvae were numerous in plankton 

 samples. We believe that tautog egg and larval abundance are the best 

 population indicators for this species. The historical egg and larval 

 catches produced reliable models with high R"^ values. Low forecast 

 errors indicated that the actual 1983 data did not deviate greatly from 

 the past years. 



Taut ogo lab rus adspersus , cunner 



The cunner was within the top ten ranked species from all Millstone 

 monitoring programs except seines. This species had the most abundant 

 eggs found in plankton samples and larvae ranked fourth and fifth at NB 



40 



