ne-baa«d rogruaiilon iiodsla ■•l«ct*d Co bast daacrlb* tha 

 nHoitnn progr«»» at HUPS. 



Monitoring 

 PrograB 



laplogeunt Unit 1 Z - BjF+BjPSlndKjjj^BjPCoaCtHijj^Aia j+Aja^_jtAj«^_j 

 laplngeaant Unit 2 Z^ - BjP*BjFSln(ti;jj)*BjPCoa(trj2)*Aja^_j+Ajaj_j*Aja^_j 



Entralnaant 



Ichthyoplankton NB 

 Traul BE 



Tnvl 

 Trawl 



B.S-B2SCoa(tK,)-B,SSln(tKj)-B^SCo»(tKj)* 

 A,a^ ,-A_a^ ^^A^a -i-A.a^ o~Ae«. xc~*t** 



«♦*,•- 



"l't-1 "2't-3 "3"t-7 "4"t-8 "5"t-45 "6"t-49 "7"t-50 

 Zj. - B|SSln<tKj2)+B2SSln(ti:jj)-»jSCo»(tKjj)-B^BSln(tI^) 



^ - V^'="<"'72>*»2"°<'*l2>**l't-l**2*t-4*Vt-15 



^t ' V'l'^°"*'^''72'"'2^^''*'*l2^"*3'^°"*"'l2'"*4^*"'"'6** 



*l*t-8"*2*t-2a 

 Zj - BQ-BjCoa(tr,2)-BjSln(tlC|2)-BjSln(tKj)-B^Coa(tlCj)- 



B5Sln(tr^)*BjCoa(tlC^)*Aja^_, 



^ - V^'='"<"'l2>-*2Sl°<«6>**l't-l**2V-7 



Z. - B„-B,Coa(tr„)-B,Sln(tK,,)-B,Coa(tK,,)-B,SlD(tK,)- 



"0 "r 



"72' 



"12' 



12' 



*5""<'^>**l't-l-*2't-3-*3't-lO 

 - B„-B,CoB(ti:-,)-B,Coa(tr,,)*A,a, , 



ca D< wlncac (loundar 



0.91 

 0.92 



0.96 

 0.90 

 0.44 



0.39 

 0.41 



0.61 

 0.41 



a Z * Bean of tha log cranafonwd catchas In a aaapla parlod 



B " ragraaalon coafficlanta 



t - tlaa In daya 



K " conatant to uaa for parlod of duration n In Bontha 



A • autoragraaaion coafflclenta 



a " raaldual (predlctad - obaarvad) 



P « coollng-watar flow rata at apcclflc unit 



S " aaaaonal coefflclant (1 froB January through July. at othar tlBaa) 



n ' nuBbar of obaarvatlona contributing to tha X arror 



I 



a significant multiplicative regressor. Because of the large number of 

 observations available, the impingement models for MNPS Units 1 and 2 

 had large R^ values (0.91 and 0,92, respectively). Similarly, the 

 entrainment and NB ichthyoplankton station models also explained over 

 90% of the variation during the model period; a seasonal component was 

 used in these models as winter flounder larvae were only available for a 

 maximum of 7 months of the year. These models were used to forecast 

 catches for the period October 1982 through September 1983. The actual 

 catches were then compared to those forecasted. The percent error for 

 the impingement and larval models remained low during the forecast year, 

 which suggested a reasonably accurate forecast of the data not used to 

 build the model. Examples of these particular models shown in Figures 

 21 and 22 tended to have relatively narrow confidence intervals. 

 Although data from 6 years were used in building the models, only 2 



52 



