PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS. 537 
1 
research continues to make as great demands as ever upon those same qualities, 
and that the same recognition is due to those who continue in patient labour. 
When we look into the future of geographical study, it appears that for some 
time to come we shall still be largely dependent upon work similar to 
that of the pioneer type to which I have referred, the work of perfecting the 
geographer’s principal weapon, the map. There are many parts of the world 
about which we can say little except that we know they exist; even the topo- 
graphical map, or the material for making it, is wanting; and of only a few 
regions are there really adequate distributional maps of any kind. These 
matters have been brought before this Section and discussed very fully in recent 
years, so I need say no more about them, except perhaps to express the hope and 
belief that the production of topographical maps of difficult regions may soon be 
greatly facilitated and accelerated with the help of the new art of flying. 
I wish to-day rather to ask your attention for a short time to a phase of 
pioneer exploration which has excited an increasing amount of interest in recent 
years. Civilised man is, or ought to be, beginning to realise that in reducing 
more and more of the available surface of the earth to what he considers a 
habitable condition he is making so much progress, and making it so rapidly, 
that the problem of finding suitable accommodation for his increasing numbers 
must become urgent in a few generations. We are getting into the position of 
the merchant whose trade is constantly expanding and who foresees that his 
. premises will shortly be too small for him. In our case removal to more com- 
modious premises elsewhere seems impossible—we are not likely to find a means 
of migrating to another planet—so we are driven to consider means of re- 
building on the old site, and so making the best of what we have, that our 
business may not suffer. 
In the type of civilisation with which we are most familiar there are two 
fundamental elements—supplies of food energy, and supplies of mechanical 
energy. Since at present, partly because of geographical conditions, these do 
not necessarily (or even in general) occur together, there is a third essential 
factor, the line of transport. It may be of interest to glance, in the cursory 
manner which is possible upon such occasions, at some geographical points con- 
cerning each of these factors, and to hazard some speculations as to the probable 
course of events in the future. 
In his Presidential Address to the British Association at its meeting at 
Bristol in 1898, Sir William Crookes gave some valuable estimates of the world’s 
supply of wheat, which, as he pointed out, is ‘the most sustaining food-grain 
of the great Caucasian race.’ Founding upon these estimates, he made a fore- 
east of the relations between the probable rates of increase of supply and 
demand, and concluded that ‘Should all the wheat-growing countries add to 
their (producing) area to the utmost capacity, on the most careful calculation the 
yield would give us only an addition of some 100,000,000 acres, supplying, at the 
average world-yield of 12°7 bushels to the acre, 1,270,000,000 bushels, just enough 
to supply the increase of population among bread-eaters till the year 1931.’ The 
President then added, ‘ Thirty years is but a day in the life of a nation. Those 
present who may attend the meetirfg of the British Association thirty years hence 
will judge how far my forecasts are justified.’ 
Half the allotted span has now elapsed, and it may be useful to inquire how 
things are going. Fortunately this can be easily done, up to a certain point at 
any rate, by reference to a paper published recently by Dr. J. F. Unstead,? 
in which comparisons are given for the decades 1881-90, 1891-1900, and 1901-10. 
Dr. Unstead shows that the total wheat harvest for the world may be estimated 
at 2,258 million bushels for the first of these periods, 2,575 million for the 
second, and 3,233 million for the third, increases of 14 per cent. and 25 per cent. 
respectively. He points out that the increases were due ‘ mainly to an increased 
acreage, the areas being 192, 211, and 242 million acres, but also ‘to some 
extent (about 8 per cent.) to an increased average yield per acre, for while in 
the first two periods this was 12 bushels, in the third period it rose to 13 bushels 
per acre.’ 
If we take the period 1891-1900, as nearly corresponding to Sir William 
Crookes’ initial date, we find that the succeeding period shows an increase of 
1 Geographical Journal, August 1913. 
