TRANSACTIONS OF SECTION Ff, 471 
raised. This movement is likely to be bitterly opposed. The more liberal 
elements of the middle class which have hitherto favoured the forward move- 
ment have heen estranged, and a class conflict seems inevitable. There is no 
need, however, to anticipate serious danger from such a conflict. The social 
equilibrium is not likely to be disturbed more than it has been in the past. All 
parties are clean and honest, and much good may result from a bold facing of 
ultimate social issues. 
2. On the Materials for, and the Construction of, Tables of Natality, 
Issue, and Orphanhood. By Cuas. H. Wickens, A.I.A. 
This paper comprised a brief review of the statistical data available for the 
construction of tables of natality, issue, and orphanhood treated as functions 
of the age of the father or of the mother. It also outlined the methods adopted 
and the results obtained in using for this purpose the Census results and the 
Vital Statistics for the Commonwealth of Australia. 
The subject is one which possesses considerable interest from the standpoint 
of demographic statistics, and this interest is heightened by the fact that the 
results so derived are essential for the solution of some of the complex problems 
involved in the various schemes of social insurance which have been introduced 
or proposed in various parts of the world. Statistics of average surviving 
issue of dependent age are also of importance in questions relating to such 
economic matters as the fixing of a minimum wage. 
In a report, furnished in 1911, on the actuarial basis of a scheme of National 
Insurance for the United Kingdom, two eminent British actuaries, Sir G. F. 
Hardy and Mr. F. B. Wyatt, estimated rates of natality as a function of the 
age of the father from statistics of orphanhood for the Dominion of New 
Zealand. These data were employed, owing to the absence at the time of any 
suitable statistics, for the United Kingdom. 
The method employed in this case was the indirect one of estimating, from 
the number of children living at the deaths of fathers of various ages, the 
number of children who had been born of fathers of various ages. 
A more suitable method is the computation of the rates from statistics 
showing the ages of fathers at the birth of their children. Such statistics are not 
available in the United Kingdom, but in Australia the requisite particulars have 
been recorded and tabulated for many years past, and it is a matter for some 
surprise that this source of information has not previously been tapped for the 
purpose in question. 
Certain other experiences have been employed in this connection, the most 
recent being the 1911 Census data for Camberwell, England, employed by the 
National Insurance Actuarial Advisory Committee. In this case again the data 
for determining natality rates were not the ages of the fathers and mothers at 
the date of birth, but were the numbers of fathers and mothers of various 
ages who had living with them at the date of the Census children under the 
age of twelve months. From these latter data the rates of natality were deter- 
mined by an indirect process. 
Other experiences, referred to in the course of the paper, were that of the 
Hearts of Oak Benefit Society in respect of lying-in claims, the experience of the 
Commonwealth Public Service in respect of surviving children, a similar ex- 
perience for the Public Service of New South Wales, and others. 
The special tables contained in the paper have been compiled from :— 
(i.) the Australian statistics of nuptial births according to the ages of the 
fathers for the four years 1909 to 1912; t 
(ii.) the age results for the Australian Census of April 3, 1911; 
(iii.) the mean population of Australia for the four years 1909 to 1912; and 
(iv.) the rates of mortality for successive ages derived from the Australian 
experience for the ten years 1901 to 1910. 
On the basis of these data, tables have been constructed, graduated and 
graphically represented showing :— 
(i.) the rates of nuptial natality for successive ages of males (natality table) ; 
