TRANSACTIONS OF SUCTION P. — ^PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS. 435 



Section F.— ECONOMIC SCIENCE AND STATISTICS. 



Peesident of the Section : Professor A. W. Kirkaldv, 

 M.A., B.Litt., M.Oom. 



WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER G. 



The President delivered the following Address : — 



When the British Association held its meeting in Australia in August 1914 

 the war cloud had only just burst, and thus the distinguished economist who 

 occupied the Presidential Chair of this Section could deal freely with the normal 

 economic problems of old and young communities, disregarding the new and 

 disastrous problems resulting from a great world war. Last year, however, 

 my predecessor was compelled to take account of the critical events of the 

 preceding twelve months. The war which so many presumably well-informed 

 people expected to be over in less than a year is still with us, and the economic 

 difficulties have increased in number and intensity. It is true that one of our 

 statesmen has declared that the war may end sooner than some of us think — a 

 not very hopeful utterance, but still I feel warranted from various signs in 

 dealing in this address rather with the period of reconstruction after the war 

 than with the existing situation, for, owing to kaleidoscopic changes, what is 

 written as to present conditions in August will probably be quit-e out of date 

 by September, whilst the work of reconstruction may last for the best part of 

 a century, and continue to affect the well-being of the conmiunity throughout 

 succeeding history. 



Some Thoughts on Reconstruction after the War. 



We have been at war for two years, and the war has been waged more 

 strenuously than any that human history records. It used to be said that a 

 great European war under modern conditions could not last more than six 

 months ; but this prediction, like so many other preconceptions, has been falsi- 

 fied by a world calamity that to the great mass of mankind was entirely 

 unforeseen. 



In every sphere this great war has worked, and will yet work, great changes, 

 but in the economic sphere the effects that can already be noted far exceed 

 J;hose in any other. 



Up to the present the man in the ttreet will tell you that the war has cost 

 jis over 2,000,000,000?. In mentioning that sum he probably thinks of sacks of 

 sovereigns, a printing-press feverishly turning out Treasury notes, and the 

 various devices with which he is familiar for making currency or credit. But 

 it would probably sound strange to him to hear that the number of sovereigns 

 in the country is, if anything, greater than when the war commenced, and that 

 currency generally has been enormously increased during the past twenty-four 

 months, for it is not currency that has been consumed. The same man in the 

 street, especially if he live in a munitions district, will discover that there is 

 money in plenty in circulation, that the people all look well-to-do and are living 

 as they seldom or never have before, and he may conclude that war is, after 

 a.11, not such a bad thing — at any rate, it brings prosperity. 



What is the truth ? When we say that the war has cost 2,000,000,000/. we 

 mean that we have ponsjimed that amoimfc pf eonimodities and services, that 



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