PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS. 437 



have been taught by a bittex- lesson that up-to-date equipment is as necessary, if 

 we are to maintain our position as an industrial and commercial nation, as it 

 ■was to enable ns to maintain our international position. 



Friction between employers and workpeople led to restrictions on output, 

 indifference led to utilising old tools and methods ; both meant decrease of pro- 

 ductivity. The necessary increase can be readily obtained by remodelling our 

 system in these respects. How this can be carried out so far as reorganisation 

 of the industrial forces of this country is concerned will be developed later, 

 and is dealt with in greater detail in the Eeport presented by a Committee of 

 investigation which has been working for this Association. 



Attempted Forecast of our Industrial Future. 



I want to attempt now to make a forecast of what may be expected in the 

 commercial and industrial spheres when we sheathe the sword. Germany has 

 overrun some important manufacturing districts. Belgium, North-Western 

 France, and Poland have not only been occupied by the enemy, but machinery 

 and industrial equipment have in many cases been removed to Germany. It is 

 reported that railway tracks have been torn up in order that their materials 

 might be used for military purposes elsewhere. The busy industrial areas men- 

 tioned have undoubtedly suffered very considerably, and will require to recon- 

 struct and re-equip towns and factories, and to reorganise the labour-force. To 

 set commerce and industry at work again on anything like the previous scale 

 must he a work of some time. On the other hand, in spite of evei'y effort, 

 Germany has found it impossible to interfere with the industries of the United 

 Kingdom either by force or intrigue ; nor have the Entente Powers as yet 

 invaded Germany. Indeed, for the purpose of this forecast it is wise to 

 assume that German industrial equipment will not be affected detrimentally by 

 the war. Even though we should invade Germany with a view to inflicting, 

 not only defeat, but punishment, our purpose will not include industrial 

 destruction. We shall undoubtedly do our utmost to punish those, whatever 

 their rank, who have been responsible for the many crimes committed against 

 humanity during the past two years. But this does not necessitate the ruthless 

 destruction of mill, factory, or mine. We can quite adequately punish Germany 

 without putting ourselves on a par with her in methods of destruction and 

 brutality. The military caste must be summarily punished and the entire nation 

 must be made to realise the sentiments of horror that their delight in the sink- 

 ing of the Lusitania, the executions of Miss Cavell and Captain Fryatt, have 

 aroused throughout the world. Every instance of insensate brutality must be 

 atoned for by the guilty parties, and the nation as a whole must be taught such 

 a lesson as shall make a repetition of those savage methods impossible. We 

 feel our ability to carry through this salutary work, but when this is effected 

 and when once again the world begins to get into its normal stride, so far as one 

 can foresee, England and Germany will for some time be the only two European 

 nations prepared to take any considerable part in international trade. 



Meantime during the period of the war, two countries — the United States of 

 America and Japan — have enjoyed new and unlooked-for trading advantages. 

 So far as competition fi-om the United States is concerned, it is probable that 

 we need not feel unnecessarily pessimistic. The South American States are at 

 the beginning of a period of development which may well prove to be rapid. 

 The possibilities opened up by the Panama Canal route, even though the present 

 canal should prove a failure, will not be resigned before another attempt is made 

 to pierce the isthmus; that a cutting will eventually be made is in my opinion 

 beyond question. American developments, then, may be expected to take place 

 principally on the American continent, in the Pacific, and in the Far East. In 

 these regions there is ample room for both British and American enterprise. 



Nor will Japan, for some time to come at any rate, compete with our staple 

 manufactures. 



The development made by Japan during the war would seem to indicate 

 that it is Germany, and not Great Britain, that will have to bear the brunt of 

 Japanese competition. Small goods and fancy articles which came freely into 

 our markets from Germany and Austria before the war are now being made in 

 Japan. Our merchants, being unable to get supplies of these goods, sent 



