438 TRANSACTIONS OF SECTION F. 



samples to Japan, with the most satisfactory results as to price, finish, and 

 quality. Thus we have been able to extend our business relations with our ally 

 at the expense of our enemy. Moreover, although there is no certain informa- 

 tion on the subject, it is more than poesible that when morrnal trading is 

 resumed it will be found that Japan has been extending her business in these 

 and other classes of goods into other markets hitherto the preserve of the Central 

 Powers. 



Hence it is of special interest to attempt to forecast to what extent and with 

 what prospects England and Germany will be in competition, in international 

 trade after the war. This will depend for the most part on two sets of factors : 

 (i) the internal industrial condition of each country and (ii) commercial factors. 

 So far as the former are concerned, there is much that this country should 

 realise and take to heart. 



The United Kingdom, in spite of the war and its heavy drain on our 

 resources, has been enjoying an exceptional time of seeming prosperity. A 

 large section of the workpeople have been earning high wages, whilst some 

 employers have been earning handsome profits. High prices, high wages, 

 high profits have been the order of the day. The return of peace will very 

 considerably modify the last two of these, and how will those affected face 

 the change ? 



To understand how the parties will answer this question, certain agree- 

 ments must be remembered. Foremost among these is the State guarantee that 

 certain Trade Union restrictions and Government regulations which have been 

 in abeyance for the period of the war shall be reimposed when peace is 

 restored. If we were reverting to pre-war conditions there would be much 

 to be said for this, but one hopes that both parties realise fully that con- 

 ditions have radically changed, and that in consequence both employers and 

 workpeople must be prepared to meet the new situation in a new spirit. Why 

 were these agreements and regulations set aside ? Because it was known that 

 they hampered output, and our military success depended upon our producing 

 the greatest possible amount of munitions of war. Our commercial success 

 will now equally depend on getting the utmost possible production out of our 

 industrial equipment. Are we then going to restore these obstacles just at 

 the most critical moment ? 



With the return to more normal times the national necessity for war stores 

 and munitions will cease, and our industrial forces will have to rely on the 

 home and foreign markets for employment. Foreign competition will almost 

 certainly be greatly intensified. There may be at first a great demand for 

 manufactured goods of all kinds, as a consequence of decreased supplies during 

 the war, but all the principal trading nations will strain every nerve to get 

 the greatest possible share of orders. If, under such circumstances, we indulge 

 in an internal struggle between Capital and Labour, instead of bending our 

 whole energies to retain and extend our hold on markets, we shall lose an 

 opportunity which is not likely to return. And yet there is a widespread 

 expectation among employers and workpeople that the European war will be 

 succeeded by serious industrial strife. , 



So far as the commercial factors are concerned we have almost everything 

 in our favour. We have not outraged the sentiments of humanity by employing 

 inhuman methods in waging war. We have retained our position as the head- 

 quarters of the money market. We have our shipping resources and equipment 

 practically intact. Our merchants and exporters are keen and ready to carry 

 on their business with even greater energy than before the war. We have 

 arrears to make up, but have the will, and, with harmony at home, the 

 ability to carry on a more extended trade. Our capital has not been seriously 

 affected, and there are no signs that it will be — our financial establishments 

 and banks are prepared to do their share. 



Turning to Germany, there is a most interesting condition of affairs to 

 study. If beaten in the war Germany will be a poor country ; the economic 

 position will be deplorable, but hardly irreparable. Every section of the 

 community has already felt to some degree the effects of the war. When 

 peace comes there will be a determined attempt to regain the old position. 

 A disciplined people, acting under a Government that will be compelled by 

 circumstances to foster every possible means for repairing the broken machine 



