112 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES. 



etfinical grounds, and the possession of Pola, Valona, and some of the 

 islands gives her all the strategic advantages which she has reason to 

 demand. But, after all, the only danger which could threaten her in 

 the Adriatic would come from Jugo-Slavia, and her best insurance 

 against that danger would be an agi-eement by which the Adriatic should 

 be neutralised. The destruction of the Austro-Hungarian fleet offers 

 Italy a great opportunity of which she would do well to take advantage. 



Of the prospects of Jugo-Slavia it is hard to speak with any feeling 

 of certainty. With the exception of parts of Croatia- Slavonia and of 

 Southern Hungary, the country is from the physical point of view 

 essentially Balkan, and diversity rather than unity is its most pro- 

 nounced characteristic. From this physical diversity there naturally 

 results a diversity in outlook which might indeed be all to the good if 

 the different parts of the country were linked together by a well- 

 developed system of communication. Owing to the structure of the 

 land, however, such a system will take long to complete. 



Ethnic affinity forms the real basis of union, but whether that 

 union implies unity is another matter. It is arguable that repulsion 

 from the various peoples — Magyars, Turks, and Austrians — ^by whom 

 they have been oppressed, rather than the attraction of kinship, is the 

 force which has brought the Jugo-Slavs together. In any case the 

 obstacles in the way of the growth of a strong national feeling are many. 

 Serb, Croat, and Slovene, though they are all members of the Slav 

 family, have each their distinctions and characteristics which political 

 differences may t«nd to exaggerate rather than obliterate. In Serbian 

 Macedonia, again, out of a total population of 1,100,000, there are 

 400,000 to 600,000 people who, though Slavs, are Bulgarian in their 

 sympathies, and between Serb and Bulgarian there will long be bitter 

 enmity. Eeligious differences are not wanting. The Serbs belong to 

 the Orthodox Church, but the Croats are Catholics, and in Bosnia there 

 is a strong Mohammedan element. Cultural conditions show a wide 

 range. The Macedonian Serb, who has but lately escaped from 

 Turkish misrule, the untutored but independent Montenegrin, the Dal- 

 matian, with his long traditions of Italian civilisation, the Serb of the 

 kingdom, a sturdy fighter but without great political insight, and the 

 Croat and Slovene, whose intellectual superiority is generally admitted, 

 all stand on different levels in the scale of civihsation. To build up out 

 of elements in many respects so diverse a common nationality without 

 destroying what is best in each will be a long and laborious task. 

 Economic conditions are not likely to be of much assistance. It is true 

 that they are fairly uniform throughout Jugo-Slavia, and it is improbable 

 that the economic interests of different regions will conflict to any great 

 extent. On the other hand, since each region is more or less self- 

 supporting, they will naturally unite into an economic whole less easily 

 than if there had been greater diversity. What the future holds for 

 Jugo-Slavia it is as yet impossible to say; but the country is one of 

 great potentialities, and a long period of political rest might render 

 possible the development of an important State. 



This brings me to my conclusion. I have endeavoured to consider 

 the great changes which have been made in Europe not in regard to 



