M. — AGRICULTURE . 



209 



long ago that the clue to the spread of wart disease in England was 

 to be sought in the potato fields of Scotland. Mr. Taylor will, I hope, 

 give us the latest and most interesting chapter in the story of wart 

 disease, and I will not therefore spoil his story by anticipation of its 

 conclusions. 



The tacit assumption which has so far underlain my Address is that 

 an extension of intensive cultivation in this country is desirable. I 

 have indicated that areas are to be discovered where soil and climate 

 are favourable to this form of husbandry, and that by the establishment 

 of a proper form of research — administrative — and educational organisa- 

 tion the already high standard reached by intensive cultivators may be 

 surpassed. It remains to inquire whether any large increase in the 

 area under intensive cultivation is in fact either desirable or probable. 



The dispassionate inquirer will find his task by no means easy. 

 He should, as a preliminary, endeavour to discern in the present welter 

 of cosmic disturbance what are likely to be the economic conditions of 

 the politician's promised land — the new world which was to be created 

 from the travail of war. In the first place, and no matter how academic 

 he may be. he cannot fail to recognise the fact that costs of production, 

 including labour, are at least twice and probably 2i times those of 

 pre-war days, and he must assume that the increase is permanent and 

 not unlikely to augment. "What this means to the different forms of 

 cultivation may be iudged from the following estimates of capital costs 

 of cultivation of different kinds : — 



Labour and Capital for Farming and Intensive Cultivation. 



In the second place the inquirer is bound to assume that the inten- 

 sive cultivator of the future, like his predecessor in the past, will have 

 to be prepared to fa-ce the competition of the world. He may, I believe, 

 look for no artificial restriction of imports, and therefore he must be 

 prepared to find that higher costs of production will not necessarily 

 be accompanied by increased receipts for intensively cultivated com- 

 modities. 



But, on the other hand, he may find some comfort in the fact that 

 both immediately before and, still more, subsequently to the war. 

 the standard of living both in this country and throughout the world 

 was, and is still, rising. Hence he may perhaps expect a less severe 

 competition from foreign growers and also a better market at home. 



He may also derive comfoi^ from the reflection that the increased 

 cost of production which he must bear must also, perhaps in no less 

 1920 p 



