142 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES. 
held that Devil in clear prospect. For the next half-century he was 
chained up and out of sight. Now perhaps we have loosened him again.’ 
These quotations set the problem. The question is not indeed 
whether Malthus’ Devil is loose again. Mr. Keynes has seen to that; 
he stalks at large through our lecture-rooms and magazines and debating 
societies. The question is rather whether Mr. Keynes was right to 
loose this Devil now upon the public. Was there in Europe or in the 
world as a whole before the War clear evidence, first, of ‘ a diminishing 
yield of Nature to man’s effort’; and, second, of a ‘rising real cost’ 
of corn? 
The Course of Agricultural Production. 
The answer to the first question is given by the table of ‘ Agricul- 
tural and other Production at certain Epochs’ which is printed above. 
Notes to Table I. 
The figures of acreage and corn production at the successive epochs are averages 
for the six years 1878-1883, 1888-1893, 1898-1903, 1908-1913, and for the two years 
1920-21, or for as many of those years as were available in each case. 
The populations are those given in censuses or official estimates relating to dates 
within six months of January 1, 1881, 1891, 1901, 1911 and 1921, or are estimated 
for about those dates (being the centre of the six years taken for averaging) where no 
such census was available. 
The figures for ‘ Europe’ relate to Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, 
Germany, Holland, Hungary, Italy, Roumania, Russia (with Poland), Serbia, Spain, 
Sweden, and the United Kingdom, containing between them 94% of the total popu- 
lation of Europe in 1910. Norway, Finland, Portugal, Switzerland, Greece, Turkey, 
Bosnia and Herzegovina and a few minor states alone are excluded. The figures for 
‘ Countries settled from Europe ’ relate to Canada, United States of America, Argentina, 
Uruguay, Australia, and New Zealand, At the epochs 1900 and 1910 actual returns 
are available for all those countries ; at the earlier epochs the yields or acreages or 
both have had to be interpolated for a few countries (of which Spain and Roumania 
are the most important). 
The yields, acreages, and populations for 1920-21 are based on the statistics given 
in the year book for 1921 of the International Agricultural Institute. The yields and 
acreages for earlier years are based on the statistics in the annual Agricultural Returns 
published by the English Board of Agriculture and Fisheries. The populations for 
these earlier years in Europe are based on the statistics compiled by the International 
Statistical Institute) Htat de la Population, published 1916). 
Weights have been converted into quarters on the basis of 480 Ibs. to the quarter 
of wheat, rye, and maize, and 448 lbs. to the quarter of barley. 
The figures for coal, iron ore and steel production are five or three year averages 
centering on the years 1880, 1890, 1900, 1910. For Europe the production is actually 
that of Austria, Hungary, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy (not steel), Russia (not 
iron ore), Spain (not steel), Sweden, and United Kingdom. For European settlements 
the United States contribute all the steel and all but a little of the iron ore; for coal 
Canada, Australia and New Zealand are included. The production* per head ’ is based 
on the same populations as those used for agriculture in Europe and its settlements 
respectively. 
The population for Russia at January 1, 1911, is obtained (as 133,500,000) by 
interpolation from censuses and estimates for earlier years and from the official 
estimate of 130,820,000 at January 1, 1910, given both in the Agricultural Returns of 
the English Board of Agriculture from which the acreages and crops are taken, and in 
the Annuaire Statistique of 1916 (Etat de la Population). The 1921 year book of the 
International Agricultural Institute gives for January 1, 1911, an estimate of 
138,274,500. This is inconsistent both with the estimate for January 1, 1910, and 
with the census of 1897, requiring an impossible rate of increase. Jt must refer to an 
area larger than that covered by the crop returns, 
