146 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES. 
would be worse. To point the contrast, we have the figures for Europe’s 
settlements; from 1910 to 1920 a further growth of acreage under 
crops and of crops per acre, and a yield per head of population only 
slightly less. 
This result is only incidental to the present inqury. The main 
object of my calculations has been to test whether the facts suggested 
any diminution of returns to agriculture in Europe between 1900 and 
1910. Having regard to Mr. Keynes’ words, I expected to find in the 
last years before the War a falling yield in Europe, balanced by increased 
drawing on the virgin lands of the new world. Actually we find in 
Europe, decade by decade to the eve of war—population rising, acreage 
under corn rising, total production rising still more, so that we get a 
greater yield per acre and per head of the total population.® 
The Movement of Corn Prices. 
The answer to our second question, as to the real cost of corn, is as 
certain and hardly less surprising. If before the War it was becoming 
‘necessary year by year for Europe to offer a greater quantity of other 
commodities to obtain the same amount of bread,’ the money price 
of corn must have been rising relatively to the money price of other 
commodities. There is no trace of such a rise; the movement was in 
the opposite direction ; up to the eve of war the price of corn was falling 
relatively to the price of other commodities, 
Table III shows the movement of wholesale prices from 1871 to 
1913 as recorded in the two best-known British indices: that of the 
3 Detailed examination of the figures yields a number of interesting results 
which can only be briefly indicated here : ’ 
(1) The progress shown for all the countries taken together represents a 
general movement in the fifteen countries taken separately. Taking wheat 
alone, from 1880 to 1910 every country for which figures are available shows 
a large increase in the yield per acre, varying from 18 per cent. in France to 
68 per cent. in Germany, and averaging 43 per cent.; the other countries show 
large increases from 1890 to 1910. Even from 1900 to 1910 of the fifteen countries 
every one but three shows an increased yield per acre; the United Kingdom is 
stationary and France has a trifling decline; the Danish figures are incomplete 
and abnormal. More surprising still, every one but four (Belgium, France, 
Holland and United Kingdom) shows an increase of wheat per head of total 
population in the decade. For crops other than wheat the figures are less 
uniformly progressive; generally between 1900 and 1910 yield per acre increased 
in each country for each crop, except barley (which increased in eight and 
decreased in six countries), but yield per head of total population increased only 
for wheat. This greater progress of wheat is in itself a sign of greater ease 
rather than stringency ; it represents a rising, not a falling, standard of life. 
(2) During the thirty years 1880 to 1910 the total acreage under each crop 
and the yield per acre, in Europe as a whole, have both grown. But the rates 
of growth for acreage and for yield per acre vary inversely. ‘lhe acreage has 
increased most for barley (41 per cent.) ; next for wheat (38 per cent.) ; next 
for maize (33 per cent.) ; and least of all for rye (2 per cent.). The yield per 
acre has risen most for rye (45 per cent.) ; next for maize (22 per cent.) ; next 
for wheat (19 per cent.) ; least for barley (13 per cent.). This is an interesting 
statistical confirmation of expectations based on economic theory. The greater 
total production has been secured in wheat and barley mainly by bringing fresh 
lands under cultivation ; in maize and rye, mainly by getting more out of lands 
already cultivated. 
