118 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES. 



An increase in the man power of Africa is everywhere required if its 

 resources are to be developed by any means whatever, and it is very 

 important to ascertain what effect European contact and economic 

 expansion are having on the vital statistics of the various territories. 



The trouble is that we have very little data to go upon. In regard to 

 many of the territories the 1921 census was really the first one that can 

 be taken as effectively reliable — and the absence of scientific statistics is 

 one of our difficulties. It is only in the Union of South Africa, with its 

 far longer history of established government, that we have sound figures 

 for purposes of making deductions. 



The Royal Society of South Africa has recently published an extremely 

 valuable paper by Senator Alexander Roberts, entitled ' A Statistical 

 Enquiry into the Population Problem in South Africa.' He proves that 

 the rate of increase of both the European and native populations is 

 astonishingly low and seems to be decreasing. Between 1904 and 1921 

 the white population of the Union has only increased by I'S? per cent, 

 per annum, whereas between 1835 and 1904 the annual average increase 

 was nearer 5 per cent. A normal percentage increase such as one has the 

 right to expect would seem to be at least three. 



Similar results appear from his examination of the statistics of native 

 population. Enumerations show a declining rate of increase everywhere 

 except in Zululand. The native increase throughout the Union was 

 about 2"4 per cent, at the commencement of this century. The figures 

 for the famous Transkei native reserve, containing nearly one quarter of 

 the total native population of the Union, are of special interest. Reliable 

 data are available for that district from 1875 to 1921. The average rate 

 of increase for the whole period 'is 2 per cent, but for the period 1911 

 to 1921 the rate has dwindled to '68 per cent, per annum. 



These figures are significant. They show that even in the healthiest 

 part of the African continent, where modern hygiene and sanitary con- 

 ditions are more developed, the native population, so far from tending 

 to increase more rapidly, is increasing at an unexpectedly low rate, and 

 that even the rate is diminishing. 



When we turn to the more populous tropical areas of the continent 

 we are faced by the fact that we have no scientific data to go upon. A 

 great part of the area has only come under effective administration during 

 the last thirty years. We have only the censuses of 1911 and 1921 to go 

 upon. The 1911 censuses were admittedly far from perfect, and though 

 the 1921 censuses marked a great improvement in accuracy, it is now 

 generally admitted that in many places the enumeration involved 

 estimating rather than actual counting. 



There are very few places in Tropical Africa where it is yet possible to 

 secure the recording of vital statistics. In the townships of Lagos and 

 Freetown fairly accurate figures are obtainable, but nowhere else in West 

 Africa. Thanks to the co-operation of the native administrations, useful 

 figures are now obtainable in regard to several parts of the Uganda 

 Protectorate, but elsewhere in East Africa the registration of births and 

 deaths is as yet impracticable, and still more the causes of death. 



From such figures as are available we can deduce the fact that in 

 Uganda theie can be little doubt that the population declined between 



