162 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES. 



electrical development in tliis country. It is interesting to quote a 

 paragraph from this masterly Report, which is as follows : — • 



' The futility of trying to forecast the development in time-steps 



of a few years was early recognised, and some definite time, not too 



near nor yet too far distant, had to be selected for the forecast. The 



year 1950 was chosen for this purpose and the estimates are based on 



that time. ... It may be thought that the conditions for 1930 or even 



1940 could be forecast with more certainty, and probably they could. 



However, the year itself is of no importance, but the approximate 



correctness of the picture is. If the development here assumed for 



1950 is actually reached by 1945 or not until 1955, this is of no importance 



whatever. What is important is the direction that the development now 



should take so as to insure building best for the future, and for this the 



assumed 1950 picture should serve as a guide.' 



Let us now try to sketch the probable scope in this country — a theme 



which may be appropriate for such an occasion as this, as being of general 



as well as of scientific interest. 



There are three classes of supply in which great extensions may reason- 

 ably be expected : (1) domestic supplies, (2) industrial power, and 

 (3) railway electrification. 



Let us first consider the possibility of an extended domestic supply. 

 Statistics derived from actual records of several housing estates and other 

 sources, where electricity has been extensively but not wholly employed 

 for heating, cooking, and lighting, show that the consumption per capita 

 is over 1,100 units per annum, or 5,500 units for each house. 



When electricity is the sole agent and is used not only for the above- 

 named purposes but also for heating water for baths and general domestic 

 requirements, and for many minor but economic and necessary operations 

 such as vacuum cleaning, irons, sewing-machines, many kinds of small 

 domestic and table appliances, and in some cases electrical washers, wringers 

 and driers, the consumption per capita rises to over 2,500 units (equivalent 

 to 85.3 therms) per annum. The amount consumed appears to be largely 

 a question of the price of electricity ; the cost, reliability, and availability 

 of domestic appliances and competition with other sources of heat such 

 as gas or central heating by fuel. 



The existence of a great gas industry would make it absurd to suggest 

 that in the course of the next generation the requirements of the country 

 for domestic purposes would rise to a figure represented by the multiplica- 

 tion of the population of the country by 2,500 units per capita, to which 

 would be added the requirements for industrial power and traction. 



The output of the gas-supply industry for the year 1924 was 

 256,891,922 thousand cubic feet. The actual value in therms is not 

 recorded. On the assumption that the average calorific value of the gas 

 supply was 500 B.Th.U. per cubic foot, then the total therms supplied 

 amounted to 1,284,000,000, or 30 therms per head of population, the 

 total population of Great Britain being taken at 43,000,000 (1921 Census). 

 This output is thermally equivalent to 870 units of electricity per capita. 

 This is not a strictly correct statement, for a proportion of the population 

 has neither a supply of gas nor of electricity, and the consumption per 

 co^ito by the population actually served is really higher than the figure given. 



