F.— ECONOMIC SCIENCE AND STATISTICS 129 



so-called ' new industries ' tariffs which have grown up since the war have 

 probably proved a more serious obstacle to British and German trading 

 interests than to those of other countries, since it is commonly fuel, 

 power, textile, iron, steel and engineering developments which are first 

 attempted in making the transition from the agricultural to the industrial 

 state. A third matter seems to deserve mention : that the elaboration and 

 differentiation of tariff ratings which has grown up has to some extent neu- 

 tralised the favourable position given to Britain by the M.F.N, clause ; it 

 has made it possible to conclude bargains on those qualities of a commodity 

 which lay outside Britain's scope, while making no change in those ratings 

 which affected her trade. 



Earlier in this paper it was pointed out that up to 1925 there was 

 a distinct tendency towards freeing international commercial intercourse 

 from its war fetters, and towards tariff simplification and stabilisation at 

 levels not much higher than those ruling before 19 14. That promise 

 has not been fulfilled, and from 1927-28 there has been a rapid upward 

 movement not only in finished goods tariffs but in agricultural duties ; 

 no doubt this tariff marathon may be in part a passing phase due to the 

 extraordinary rapidity with which prices have fallen, but it has raised one 

 problem which may affect future British policy. It now appears as if 

 bilateral treaties with the M.F.N, clause were not an adequate method of 

 dealing with the tariff situation, and the only obvious alternative is group 

 negotiation and group treaties : if groups of nations begin to create 

 tariff blocs within which lower duties prevail than those which are 

 granted to outsiders, then the whole question of the unconditional inter- 

 pretation of the M.F.N, clause would arise. It would hardly seem 

 feasible for a European bloc, if it were formed, to allow the clause to 

 operate in the case of high tariff nations like the U.S.A. British com- 

 mercial policy would have to secure that she was favourably received into 

 all groups on similar terms to the constituent members, particularly into 

 those which included many countries whose productive resources are 

 mainly complementary to her own. Examples beyond the Empire would 

 be the Scandinavian countries and the South American markets. 



Looking therefore at British overseas trade from the angle of demand 

 and sales, there seems a reasonable probability that its position would be 

 relatively improved compared with that of other countries if special 

 efforts were made to study and analyse the features of most of the over- 

 seas markets, and if the distributive organisation were developed to that 

 level at which the British firms were able to keep in much closer touch 

 with the sale of their goods overseas. The world is tending for many 

 industries to become a ' home ' or ' domestic ' market, and it will have to 

 be cultivated, developed, stimulated and studied with the same care and 

 by many of the same methods as are applied by firms within their own 

 country's frontiers. It need hardly be said that any policy which led to 

 general reduction of tariffs to even the level of 19 14 and imparted to them 

 some freedom from continual change would assist particularly in the sale 

 of British goods. Of the countries which have been most prominent in 

 foreign trade development within recent years the U.S.A. is the chief; 

 although she has displaced Britain as leading source of supply for many 



