110 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES. 



Accurate unemployment figures for the U.S.A. do not exist : estimates 

 exist for 1928 which vary from 1.9 millions to 2.6 millions : one estimate 

 for 1927 was 4 millions, whilst another authority gives an estimate which 

 varies from 4J millions in 1921 to a minimum of 2 millions in 1927.* 



A census of production does not exist in Germany. The revised index 

 of production recently published by the Institut fiir Konjunkturforschung 

 (Base 1928=100 ; comprising 31 weighted industrial groups) shows that 

 production rose from a figure of 69.5 for 1924 to 101 in 1929. In the 

 year of rationalisation, 1925, the index rose to 83.3, fell in the slump of 

 1926 to 79 and reached 100 in 1927. ^ Whilst the maximimi number of 

 applications per 100 places available reached a peak at the beginning of 

 1926 (in the period 1924-9), and the employment situation is marked by 

 great seasonal variations, nevertheless a competent German authority 

 points out that in 1929 ' fhe rise in unemployment as compared with 

 the previous year, practically corresponded to the increase in the number 

 of available workers caused by the age distribution of the population. 

 In 1929 it was thus no longer possible for industry to absorb this 

 increment.' ^ Some interesting figures are cited by the same authority, 

 illustrative of the growth of efficiency in particular industries. In the 

 Ruhr Coal industry, for instance, the total number of employees declined 

 by 10 per cent, between 1913 and 1928, whilst the output per employee 

 rose by 26 per cent. In 1929, production per employee rose another 9 per 

 cent, up to June, whilst employment fell another two per cent., though 

 the monthly figures are clearly affected by seasonal changes. In another 

 industry directly competitive with British industry, the facts are even 

 more striking : ' The index of labour efficiency in the German machine 

 industry, using the first quarter of 1925 as a basis, averaged 142 per cent, 

 for 1929, as compared with 133 per cent, for 1928, 142 per cent, for 1927 

 and 126 per cent, for 1926.' i" 



Even in the case of Great Britain, which is generally regarded as ha^ang 

 lagged somewhat behind in the Rationalisation movement, more than one 

 piece of evidence is available which suggests an increasing productivity as 

 one of the immediate causes of unemployment. Quite apart from the 

 recent speeches of industrial leaders at Company meetings representing 

 such diverse products as cement, transport and rubber tyres, the produc- 

 tion index of the London and Cambridge Economic Service when placed 

 in juxtaposition with the employment figures, reveals a far more rapid 

 growth in the former than in the latter. Thus between 1924 and 1929 

 the Combined Index of Production rose from 100 to 116.2 : the employed 

 population over the same period increased from some 9,500,000 to 

 10,020,000 persons, or some 7 per cent., whilst unemplojTnent was greater 

 by nearly 4 per cent. No doubt the position in Great Britain is extra- 

 ordinarily difficult to weigh, since world factors of any sort unfavourable 

 to trade and industry are likely to affect this country to a greater degree 

 than more sheltered areas. Nevertheless, the figures do suggest a growing 



' Recent Economic Changes in the U.S., 2 vols. 1929, t'. Vol. II, pp. 469-78. 

 ^ Germany's Economic Development during the Second Half of the Tear 1929, 

 published by the Reichs-Kredit-Gesellschaft, 1930. 

 '" Germany's Economic Development, &c., p. 14. 



