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F.—ECONOMIC SCIENCE AND STATISTICS 131 
economic depression, the shrinkage in world trade, and competition from 
other modes of transport. It is a very difficult matter to disentangle the 
effects of the various causes, and no very definite conclusions can be 
reached on this point. The effects of road competition are, however, 
incontestable, and the abstraction of traffic by this competitor is reflected 
in the general trends in traffic statistics for general merchandise and 
passenger services during the post-war period. 
Fluctuations in national prosperity are clearly indicated by variations 
in the volume of traffic (e.g. the peaks of 1920 and 1929 stand out clearly, 
as does the trough of the great depression), and these have affected traffic 
of all kinds. ‘The improvement in the internal economic position of the 
country is definitely indicated in the monthly traffic statistics of the past 
year, but it cannot be expected that the prosperity of 1929 can be attained 
until the international trading position improves. 
The chronic depression in the old pre-war export industries has 
naturally led to a fall in the traffic provided by them; thus even in the 
comparatively good year 1929 the tonnage of coal, coke, and patent fuel 
carried by rail was only 91°8 per cent. of that in 1913. By 1931 this 
traffic had fallen off by a further 334 million tons. Now coal traffic is 
practically immune from road competition, and it is only during the past 
few years that coastwise competition has become somewhat more severe. 
A considerable fall in other mineral traffic since 1913 is obviously due to 
a similar cause. 
General merchandise traffic shows a fall of more than 10 million tons 
comparing 1929 with 1913, despite the fact that the industrialisation and 
population of the country has increased since 1913. In this case, there is 
no doubt but that road competition has been the prime cause of the loss 
of traffic. The considerable expansion in the lighter industries of Great 
Britain hardly appears to be reflected at all in railway traffic. These 
industries are well suited to road transport, and in fact many new factories 
are now built not at rail-side, but on the main roads and utilise road 
transport for all their requirements. 
As regards passenger transport, the very marked decline in First Class 
travel from 233 million journeys in 1913 and 34} million journeys in 
1920 to only 17} million journeys in 1929 is no doubt in large part—though 
by no means altogether—due to the increased use of motor-cars. The 
fall in Third Class travel (756 million journeys in 1913, 823 million 
in 1920, and only 657 million in 1929) is due to the competition of the 
motor-bus and motor-coach. In estimating the effects of road com- 
petition it must be remembered that it is not sufficient to measure the 
figures of to-day against those of 1913. ‘The railways have failed to 
obtain their share of the new traffic which has arisen since 1913 owing to 
increase of population or from the tendency of journeys per capita to 
increase as the years go by. 
The only direction in which rail traffic has definitely held its own is in 
parcels traffic. Season ticket travel by train, it is true, has increased since 
1913, but the railways have not gained a proportionate part of the new 
traffic which must be very considerable bearing in mind the trend of 
population away from the centres of towns to outlying districts. 
