44 SECTIONAL ADDRESSES 
sponding relationship of 0-84 shown in Fig. 14 between the winter tem- 
perature at New Year Island at the extreme south-east of South America, 
and that at Cape Town a year later. The far greater influence of New 
Year Island is interesting, since between Cape Horn and the South 
Orkneys there runs E.N.E.a line which the recent Discovery expedition 
calls the Antarctic Convergence ; here the cold antarctic water meets the 
northern warmer water and dives under it. So while the current flowing 
past New Year Island can after a year approach South Africa that from 
the South Orkneys is cut off by a barrier. 
If I may summarise these remarks, I would say that although seasonal 
foreshadowing is still very imperfect it has come to stay ; for situations 
will arise from time to time, as they did in India in 1905, in which it 
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 
+PC 
“PC 
Fic. 14.—Departures from normal of Ano Nuevo temperature, June to August, 
and of Cape Town temperature, June to August, of following year. 
can be foreseen with practical certainty that rains will fail and a warning 
will then be of great value. But those who prepare formule by the 
selection, based merely on the closeness of their apparent relationship, 
of a few out of many factors must remember that they cannot expect the 
value of all these factors to be maintained; and if they have a fore- 
casting formula which on paper works out with a coefficient of, say, 0°75, 
they must realise that this is in reality probably not more than 0-6, or 
in some cases even 0-4. And I would plead for a much severer standard 
in handling questions of periodicity. If these views are right, no 
anticipations should be published except on the strongest evidence of 
excess or defect until the experience of fifteen or twenty years has justified 
a less cautious policy. i 
Finally I would express the hope that the subject may, by its potential 
value to the race, and by the many-sided nature of its interests, enlist the 
services of some of my hearers who are qualified to unravel some of ‘its 
intricacies. 
